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000
FXUS63 KJKL 292330
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
730 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

The more scattered coverage of showers and isolated storms
resides across the far east this evening and another area of just
showers across the Lake Cumberland region this hour. Between these
two areas is a relative lull and even clearing skies. This is all
being aided by a upper level low that is generally centered
across south central KY this evening. Overall think the forecast
package in the near term looks on track and will have to keep a
eye on radar trends through the night. Did opt to remove thunder
after 01Z, but kept in through then given the isolated strikes we
have seen in the far east toward Letcher and Martin Counties.
Otherwise only minor updates to latest obs and trends were
needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

19z sfc (and aloft) analysis shows a stacked low spinning over
Central Kentucky. This is clearly seen in the movement of the
scattered convection throughout the region as well as the clouds
on visible satellite. The convection was and is best developed in
far eastern Kentucky - particularly in RLX`s area where some
large hail has fallen. In fact, the storms to the east have been
well organized with decent low level rotation and evidence of
splitting cells. Will have to keep an eye on the far east and
northeast parts of the area into the evening. Temperatures did not
recover much from overnight lows today thanks to the clouds and
pcpn. At 3 pm readings varied from the mid 50s in the east with
the steadier rains to the lower 60s over the somewhat drier
Cumberland Valley. Winds have been light and variable through the
day with a tendency for them to come out of the north and
northwest while dewpoints have fallen into the low to mid 50s most
places.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a bowling ball of low
heights centered over Central Kentucky through midday Friday. This
feature will then meander back north to northwest into Saturday
morning. Plenty of energy accompanies the heart of the low and
will continue to spin over Kentucky. Late in the period there are
some differences starting to show up among the models with the
GFS the slowest to ease away from JKL and the NAM slightly
quicker. Given the similarities in guidance will favor a blended
solution with emphasis on the HRRR in the near term.

Sensible weather will feature a chilly and damp evening for most
with a potential for a couple of thunderstorms in the far east.
Some small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storm that
develop given the low freezing level. Fog will be possible
overnight and not just confined to the valleys as stratus is
expected to build down on the ridges, as well. Look for mainly a
few scattered showers around the fringes of the CWA later tonight
through Friday as the core of the upper low slips off to the west
and we start to dry out. Clouds will remain, though, limiting the
diurnal rise and fall through the rest of the forecast, but highs
should be a category or two higher than today.

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as a starting point for most
grids into Friday morning with the SuperBlend used thereafter.
Made only minor changes to the T grids based on our terrain. As
for PoPs - ended up similar to a MOS blend through Saturday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

The extended period should feature isolated rain showers to begin
the period Saturday and Sunday, as a slow moving area of low
pressure slowly rotates through the region. They system will have
only meager lift an moisture associated with it, so any showers that
form with it should be isolated to scattered at best, mainly for the
western and northern portions of the forecast area. Once the upper
low rotates out of the Ohio Valley and out of our area Sunday
evening, the remainder of the extended should be dry and pleasant. A
ridge of high pressure is forecast to settle over the region through
out the upcoming work week, which would bring mostly clear to partly
cloud skies, dry conditions, and light winds to eastern Kentucky.
Daily highs are expected to top out in the 70s for most locations. A
few spots along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway
corridor may reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees Tuesday and
Wednesday. Nightly lows should bottom out in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Starting out with lower CIGS at JKL,SYM, and SJS this evening and
western sites seeing VFR. Overall think areas that saw decent
rainfall today will stand the best chances for fog issues
overnight. Therefore went for a period of IFR VIS across site of
SYM and SJS. Other sites have been Trace and more hit or miss.
The other issue the forecast soundings would suggest the
potential for a stratus build down and therefore went at least
MVFR CIGs for all the sites. This will clear through the morning
on Friday as we get into the dry slot. Given the placement of the
upper level low winds will be light through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ