Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 201145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

RAN A QUICK UPDATE ON THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE ARE THE LAST
REMNANTS...FOR KENTUCKY...OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO SLOW
THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...A FAIRLY STANDARD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS LEFT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S WHILE THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS OF 24 HOURS AGO...
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE THIS NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH AND MANY OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVOLVES INTO A MORE RECOGNIZABLE ONE CONSISTING OF ONE MAIN
STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE A TROUGH ROLLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY REPLACING OUR LOCAL RIDGING. THIS LOOSELY
CONSOLIDATED SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL TRANSFER MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO A
MORE ROBUST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS PROCESS RESULTS IN THE END OF SPLIT
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS A BROADER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...PRIMARILY AROUND THE
LAKES...BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE DAY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...ALLOWING FOR A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY...BUT THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT ITS GROWTH AND ALSO ITS SMOKE DISPERSION.
AN SPS DETAILING THIS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
WILL SET UP TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE
CEILINGS FROM THESE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...MITIGATING WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING...COLD FRONT.

AGAIN STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER.
DID ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER AND FASTER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
AND ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER FOR EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH ALL
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION BUT NEITHER LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG. DURING THE MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL...NWS
JACKSON HAS ONLY ISSUED 5 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS THIS YEAR
VERSUS A 15 YEAR AVERAGE OF 39. IT IS DOUBTFUL LOOKING AT THE LATEST
MODELS THAT WE WILL ADD TO THAT WARNING TOTAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS GENERATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPRESS. THE FRONT WILL
KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY INTO THE
MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO JUMP BACK
WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT SENDING A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...NOT THE BEST TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND ONCE AGAIN MODEL QPF IS LIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AVIATION
PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AND DEPART OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF



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