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000
FXUS63 KJKL 072336
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
636 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL LIKELY STAY ON TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE LATEST SURFACE OBS WERE INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO
ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT ASIDE FROM THAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
DEEMED NECESSARY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A COUPLE OF AREA RIVER
POINTS TO SEE IF THEY APPROACH ACTION STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO TOMORROW. WITH THE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVERHEAD TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET
THROUGH THE NIGHT REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BY MORNING. THE
COLDEST READINGS WILL RESIDE IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE A FEW UPPER 20S
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING ABOVE 32 AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER 30S. WILL PLAN TO MENTION
FOG MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY EARLY...AND MAY BE WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA. THUS...HARD TO GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. WE COULD SEE PRECIPITATION MANIFEST
ITSELF AS MORE OF A DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE LOCATED ABOVE -5C IN THE COLUMN. WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER WITH LOWS INTO THE
MID 30S. WE MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH AS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

A DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EARLY SUNDAY AS ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DEPARTS TO THE SE. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING IN
OUR SE COUNTIES...AND HAVE USED A 20 PERCENT POP. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AND CLIMBING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER RETURNING ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RETURN. THIS IS FORECAST TO CARRY IN MILD AIR FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN.
HENCE...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON TUESDAY...
LITTLE OR NO WEATHER SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...EXCEPT COOLER
TEMPS NORTH OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA.

HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FURTHER
TO THE WEST WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER AT MIDWEEK. IT WILL
OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING ESE INTO THE CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW VARIATION IN
HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH BECOMES...AND HENCE HOW MUCH THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS LIKE A COMPROMISE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
USE A MODEL BLEND/COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. PEAK
POPS ARE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE
TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS DEPARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF...AS SURFACE RIDGING SINKS TO OUR SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN INCREASE TO HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR