Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 011256
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
756 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO WARM THE LOWER LEVELS AND NOW HAVE
SURFACE TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 40S ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT SO
HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON/S PRECIP ARRIVAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STAY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE LESSENED INTO THE DAWN
HOURS...NO PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED AT ANY OB SITE IN KY SO FAR. IN
FACT...SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRESENT
OUT WEST IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL STILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 08Z FEATURE SOME
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TAKES SHAPE OUT WEST. DESPITE WEAK RETURNS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...NO PRECIP WILL LIKELY REAL THE SURFACE WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS 10 DEGREES AND GREATER IN SOME AREAS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WOULD EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTEN UP AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL THEN EXPECT
TO SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL WITH PWATS IN THE 0.70 TO
0.80 RANGE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z WITH COLDER
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...EARLIER IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE LEAVES QUITE QUICKLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
SOME AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH OMEGA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW THEN TAKES OVER ON MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HINT AT A SECOND TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH THE
AREA INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH SOME 30 MPH GUSTS MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN THE MODEL
SOUNDING WILL MAKE FOR SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...PERHAPS A
SQUALL OR TWO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...FOR SNOW
TOTALS...HAVE GONE WITH AN INCH OR LESS IN THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT BORDER VIRGINIA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THIS
MENTION IN THE HWO NOT ONLY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT ALSO THE COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
DICTATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF VARYING INTENSITIES PASSING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...SO DID
NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS DOWN IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL THEN ENSUE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY RECOVERING TO NEAR
50 DEGREES FOR SOME BY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THREATEN THE
AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...INITIALLY AS RAIN...AND THEN
QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WEAKER
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST AND SLOWER.
THIS HAS IN GENERAL BROKEN WITH CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO LAST INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AFTER ANOTHER
COUPLE OF CHILLY MORNINGS WITH TEENS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BACK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY THE
AFTERNOON 18Z TO 22Z...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS HEAVIER RAINFALL
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DECREASING VISIBILITY. IFR
AND BELOW CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH. RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BEGIN THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





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