Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL


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