Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
699 FXUS62 KKEY 031846 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 246 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 As expected the cloud line across the Lower Keys came to life this afternoon with bursts of convection. At the same time, a weaker cloudline tried to active across the Middle Keys with less enthusiasm. Otherwise, KBYX continues to show what new convection is developing is staying across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for now. Despite the increase in clouds and precipitation coverage, most island locations have managed to return into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Meanwhile, dew points are in the mid 70s, keeping conditions on the muggy side on top of everything else. .FORECAST... The forecast remains on track through the next several days. In the low levels a ridge centered across the western North Atlantic will extend a ridge axis westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. This will maintain, generally an eastward low level flow that will maintain status quo in terms of boundary layer moisture. In the mid and upper levels, weak troughing across the eastern third of the U.S. will give way to a shortwave ridge moving in from the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the upper level trough gets displaced and moves eastward, the lower level ridge will initially weaken and become more nebulous on its western edge, including over the Florida Keys. This will result in rain chances returning closer to normal (30 percent) by midweek. A new far-reaching trough will move into the eastern half of the CONUS starting late Wednesday and will stay in place through the remainder of the forecast period. This will allow for a deep layered trough to reach into the lower levels and will replace the ridge across our area. However, with that being said the Florida Keys will remain on the edge of this feature, leaving us in a col region. In addition, deep layer moisture from the western Caribbean will not be able to get drawn northward into this trough. Therefore, even though there will be a little better support throughout the layer, moisture will be a limiting factor to widespread/organized convection. As such, climatological PoPs (30 percent) will continue for now. Temperatures through the forecast period will generally remain on par from the last few days. The only difference is that dew points will slowly be creeping back up into the upper 70s, which when combined with daytime highs near or in the lower 90s may result in heat-related illness especially at the end of this week and into the upcoming weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 An Atlantic ridge will extend a ridge westward across the southeastern United States over the next few days. As a result mostly easterly breezes will range gentle to moderate, peaking in the afternoon and evenings and lulling overnight into the morning hours. A mid latitude low riding through the eastern United States through the second half of the week will nudge the Atlantic ridge southwards across Florida. As a result, winds will relax, likely becoming variable at times. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 An ongoing cloud line over the Middle and Lower Keys has resulted in bouts of sub-VFR conditions at EYW this afternoon as well as showers in the vicinity of MTH. TEMPOS will continue to cover expected impacts with showers passing over either terminal. While higher than normal rain chances continue into tonight, a lull is expected after the cloud line dissipates thus VCSH is taken out of both TAFs for now. Near surface winds will be out of the east at around 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 90 82 90 / 50 30 30 30 Marathon 82 90 82 90 / 40 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest