Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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268 FXUS64 KLCH 090455 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Aloft we have the ridge centered over the CWA. This will help in suppressing any afternoon convection for the rest of the day and into tomorrow as the upper ridge repositions itself over the northcentral Gulf of Mexico. From Sunday, near zonal to WNW flow setting up over the area. Closer to the surface we have the area of high pressure centered over the southeast, with it elongated over the CWA. Winds across our area are mostly light and variable to southerly. As the high continues to drift away, we will see southerly flow become more established over us. With moisture return, expect an increase in cloud cover. While the ridge should suppress most of the activity today, we could see some diurnal and light activity tomorrow over the waters, however PoPs onshore remain less than 15% at the moment. Our next shot of rain will come on Monday as a front approaches and moves through the area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to ramp up over the late morning hours and linger into the late afternoon timeframe. Severe weather and heavy rain are not expected at this time. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Very little change in thinking for the longterm forecast period. A weak frontal boundary draped along the Louisiana coastline will be the main focus of shower and thunderstorm activity each afternoon. Daily daytime PoPs in the ballpark of 30 to 50 percent can be expected. Temperatures in the low 90s and high humidity will bring about Heat Indices around 100 each day with a slow increase into the lower 100s by the end of the work week. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Only significant change since the previous TAF package was to include the mention of fog at LFT and ARA later tonight/near sunrise. Guidance is still hitting on fog more so at other sites but there is at least some agreement with fog moving into Acadiana prior to sunrise, so went ahead and added tempo groups to account for this. Otherwise, no changes with light winds and VFR conditions prevailing. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist into early next week, becoming somewhat variable as a weak front stalls near the coast. Dry weather is expected to prevail into tonight, with rain chances increasing over the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Sunday...spreading to the inland lakes and bays by Monday. From there through the work week, daily isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 92 74 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 94 75 93 74 / 0 0 10 0 BPT 93 75 91 74 / 0 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...17