Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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480 FXUS64 KLCH 031802 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 102 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Unsettled is the key message of the forecast package this morning with POPs continuing to become more prevalent in our very subtropical moist environment. The recent trend with this pattern has been remnant boundaries from storm complexes across central TX and LA modifying over SETX and SWLA and utilizing relatively large instability and high PWAT values to facilitate redevelopment across the CWA daily. Short range guidance has been fickle in being able to target genesis and evolution of scattered to widespread showers/storms. Basis the latest guidance now, this trend of relatively unorganized storm complexes will continue into the early work week. What hasn`t changed, are the signals for light ridging from the western Atlantic to build further into the central GOM briefly by mid week. However, given a consistent southerly flow and active pattern across the midwest, the potential for storm complexes to redevelopment even during the mid week is non-zero. Any patchy fog that has developed overnight will quickly mix out to hazy, mostly cloudy skies with highs building into the upper 80`s for most inland locations. Upper level shortwave trough over the central plains will pivot near the Ozarks before lifting across the Ohio Valley into Tuesday. Currently, forecast remains that the stronger dynamics which favor severe weather will be limited in this region and remain further north closer to the more active region of the upper level pattern. Signals have grown stronger for troughing to develop closer into the ARKLATEX region ahead that pattern. Therefore, similar to the past couple days, another round of scattered storms have become more favorable to develop into the afternoon. This thinking aligns closely with SPC guidance of a marginal and slight risk encompassing the northern ~ 1/3rd of the CWA combined with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. While much of the upper level shortwave continues to feed downstream toward the TN Valley, small perturbations in the flow aloft yield a weakly positive tilted shortwave across the region into Tuesday evening over SETX / SWLA. Much of the global guidance and National Blend of Models does not pick up well on the precipitation potential, however, there are no significant limiting factors in the forecast atmospheric profile that would confidently prevent redevelopment of clustered storms trending SE from Central TX. That said, considering the upper level dynamics, the most favorable regions would lie east of SETX into Acadiana / Atchafalaya. Moving forward into Wednesday, the ridge extension mentioned earlier appears strongest throughout the day which indicate that enough subsidence will be in place to limit any POPs. However, unlike a large synoptic high pressure cell, this weak ridging will be short lived before receding back east over the FL Peninsula. Kowalski/30 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Looking into the long range, confidence in the forecast pattern does not get any stronger with a very active northern jet across S`rn Canada and the Midwest while the subtropical jet across Mexico and the Gulf becomes more chaotic, albeit with weaker Jet Maxes. A large and deep surface low will stall out north the Great Lakes with troughing deepening south into Ohio Valley region for the remainder of the forecast outlook. Meanwhile the subtropical pattern also shifts further south toward the northern Caribbean while en elongated stationary boundary left over from the aforementioned northern stream shortwave meanders toward the ARKLATEX region. There has been a few run to run consistency in this boundary sinking south across Central LA and E`rn Tx into Saturday which would serve as a focal region for shower and thunderstorm development into the upcoming weekend for the CWA. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Sfc obs/satellite imagery show scattered/broken cu developing across the forecast area with ceilings generally in the VFR category...any lower ceilings are expected to rise above 3K feet with heating shortly. Thereafter, the main concern for the afternoon is convection with popcorn storms likely develop to develop...local 88Ds already show a few showers mainly over sern TX which will intensify and spread in coverage through the day. Going with our recent persistence in carrying convection through the late evening/overnight hours for the ern terminals where MCSs have been wreaking havoc during the normally quiet overnight hours the last several days. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are expected overnight as abundant low-level moisture pools...ceilings will again rise while srly winds pick up after daytime heating commences. 25 && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Onshore flow is expected to begin gradually increasing tonight, with caution conditions forecasted by Monday night as the gradient tightens thanks to lower pressures over the srn Plains. These elevated winds are progged to linger into mid-week before settling. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 91 74 91 / 20 20 0 40 LCH 76 89 78 89 / 10 10 0 20 LFT 78 91 78 91 / 10 20 0 20 BPT 77 90 78 91 / 10 10 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25