234
FXUS64 KLIX 041814
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
114 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The draw northward of these MCS pathways was accomplished, just not
far enough. Even though the bulk of these features have moved north
of the area they are still able to drag their "feet" through the
northern sections of the area this morning. The 1000mb ThetaE
boundary is oriented rougly from Houma to Natchez then takes a NW
path toward Shreveport. Once the latest MCS moved across the N-S
part of this, it started rapidly decaying. The 850mb gradient did
not make it to the northern portion of LA/MS and this is due to the
synoptic draw not being as strong as the models were indicating.
This will simply cause the pathways for these complexes to not be as
far north as thought. The next MCS is getting started over
central OK this morning. This will move eastward and then down the
same travel path as the one that just moved through this morning.
But as usual, as they enter our area and move to where this
ThetaE axis orients N-S, it will begin to decay. The 00z runs of
all models had this feature coming through the area with a well
developed line, but have since backed way off. As most will tell
you, "the trend is your friend", and I always say, "until it`s
not", but since we have had a lot of trouble trusting the output
of any CAM so far, we will stick to the path that got us here and
keep the trend as is, bringing the southern extention of the next
MCS into the area by this afternoon and exiting during the
evening hours. We will keep this within that same time frame from
1-3pm for entry and exiting 9-11pm tonight. Would it surprise me
that these times are later...no, but then again, nothing would
surprise me at this point. So what about Wed? It has been hard
enough figuring out day 1 much less day 2. But, the next MCS in
this infinite line looks to get started over north central to NE
OK late tonight and move east at first. The cold front that has
been talked about for a while is moving south through Montana and
Wyoming this morning and will be partly responsible for helping
develop this next MCS tonight. The MCS will move along the frontal
boundary at first until it finds the ThetaE gradients that this
front will have oriented N-S from central AR to near Lafayette. It
looks like this MCS cold pools and produces new cells along this
gradient which begin to develop a new MCS that moves south into
the area. This is highly sceptical at this point, but this is the
picture being painted. If this is the case, this MCS would be
moving through here late Wed afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The other issue here is the frontal boundary itself. Models are
trying to bring two fronts near and through the area respectively.
The first arrives behind the Wed night MCS feature on Thu and the
next would be late Fri or early Sat. This looks more like the MCS is
the feature that rushes the first weaker front southward while the
second and probably the actual synoptic front moves through late
Fri. This front is steep and will definitely provide a forcing to
help get things going for Fri or early Sat. The front stalls near
the coast Sat and orients itself from here NW to the source region
of the MCS train which allows another one or two to move into the
area through Sat and maybe early Sun. All global models want to open
up the weserlies with another cold front dropping out of Canada for
Monday morning of next week. The raw model solutions drop temps into
the low to mid 80s for Monday, but then statistical calcs and climo
take those numbers and raise them 3 to 6F. Regardless, these fronts
look to come in such rapidl succession that modification will occur,
but may not have enough time to fully heat up the dry cool air
behind the final one Monday. This is a stretch for this time of
year, but it has occurred before.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Main question for aviation interests is convective development.
While TSRA are still well back toward KSHV, there`s been quite a
bit of SHRA development in advance of that in the past 30-60, so
we may need additional amendments to add thunder in the next few
hours. Cloud bases generally between FL025 and FL035, but direct
impacts could produce MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. Most
convection should dissipate by 01z Wednesday. Potential for MVFR
to IFR ceilings prior to sunrise Wednesday. Based on the last few
days, certainly won`t rule out an additional round of convection
on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Southerly winds of 10-15kt will remain over all waters through much
of this week. Winds could become more westerly by the end of the
week but wind speeds should remain light outside any storms that
develop. A cold front is expected to stall along the coast late Fri
and could temporarily shift winds to a northerly direction, but
these winds are expected to be light outside storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  89  70 /  60  20  30  30
BTR  92  75  94  76 /  40  20  30  20
ASD  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  20  20
MSY  90  77  92  76 /  30  10  20  20
GPT  87  77  89  74 /  40  20  30  30
PQL  89  74  90  74 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE