Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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864 FXUS64 KLIX 052339 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A shortwave trough is currently moving through the lower Mississippi River Valley and will continue to track across the southeastern CONUS. An outflow dominated complex of showers and thunderstorms is moving east through the Florida Parishes and southwest Mississippi and should be exiting the CWA over the next hour or 2. The line has struggled to keep up with the outflow boundary which supports lack of severe development. However, remnant outflow boundary/ies could be features to watch before sunset as they meander towards the southern half of the local area where its relatively sunny. Gusty winds will be the main threats with this activity. A weak frontal boundary associated with the shortwave will move towards the Gulf Coast on Thursday. This, combined with typical summer daytime heating, will be the focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms. Although not outlooked for severe weather as storm will be elevated, gusty winds will be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Warmer and generally drier conditions expected as we end this week and head into the weekend. As the shortwave ejects east, upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will expand east across much of the Gulf Coast. Subsidence from this high pressure system will keep storms from developing until the next upper level trough suppresses ridging aloft possibly on Sunday. Could start to see afternoon convection then...with steadily increasing POPs thereafter. In the meantime, Friday and Saturday probably looking at highs several degrees above normal with heat indicies 100-105 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Convection for tonight has cleared for all terminals so removed mentions of it for tonight, but we`ll have mixed VFR to MVFR conditions overnight. Then another chance of showers and storms will be in the forecast again tomorrow so added VCTS where appropriate. -BL && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Elevated onshore winds will persist ahead of an approaching weak cold front. This boundary will sag into the region this evening and overnight which will breakdown the wind field Friday into early next week. Looking a winds 10kts or less and seas 1-2ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 89 69 92 / 20 10 0 10 BTR 75 92 73 96 / 30 20 0 10 ASD 75 91 73 96 / 40 70 0 10 MSY 78 91 76 94 / 40 70 0 20 GPT 76 90 74 95 / 30 70 10 10 PQL 75 90 71 95 / 40 60 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MEFFER LONG TERM....MEFFER AVIATION...BL MARINE...MEFFER