343
FXUS64 KLIX 211119
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
619 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Little change in the ongoing pattern of deep layer ridging
currently in place across the Gulf South is expected through
Thursday night. The result of this deep layer ridging will be
continued subsidence and warming through the mid and upper levels
of the atmosphere, and that warming will keep a strong mid- level
capping inversion place through the period. This will result in a
dry forecast through the period. At most, some scattered low
topped cumulus development beneath the inversion will occur each
afternoon as the low levels remain warm, humid, and unstable.
Temperatures will remain warmer than average due to the highly
subsident airmass in place, and afternoon highs will easily climb
into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will also be
above normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain
elevated in the mid to upper 60s. Have opted to go with a blend of
NBM 50th and 75th percentile values for the overnight lows. As
low dip toward the diurnal minimum each morning, some patchy fog
may develop over inland areas given the light boundary layer winds
in place beneath the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Going into Friday continuing to be noticeably hotter as 591dm
ridging remains parked over Mexico into the Gulf. This will keep
highs pretty hot generally into the mid 90`s and with the return of
low to mid 70 Td`s, will introduce building heat indicies into the
upper 90`s to low 100`s especially going into Memorial Day Weekend.
Not seeing any excessive or dangerous heat indicies, but will be
enough to be impactful for those outdoors for an extended period,
especially given this being our first return of heat reaching these
temperatures this season and many may not be too used to it just
yet. Messaging going into the holiday weekend will be focused on
taking precautions against the heat. Additionally, kept a warmer
overnight low bias rolling with many areas not cooling much lower
than the mid to upper 70`s.

As for rain chances, still not seeing strong indications but as
mentioned in yesterday`s long-range discussion, will still need to
keep an eye on the quasi-zonal flow aloft and subtle hints at weak
mid-level impulses ridging from TX to the northern Gulf coast. No
indications of any MCS or cluster in recent runs, but will need to
keep an eye on it in case anything tries to sneak into atleast
nearby our area. For now, rolling with NBM deterministic PoPs which
keeps things dry for the most part this weekend. Some indications of
a weak front arriving early next week, but that remains to be seen
as far as rain coverage/chances and potential to counteract the heat
some. Will keep an eye on that. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A dry and stable airmass will remain in place at all of the
terminals, and this will keep prevailing VFR conditions in place.
After 10z tomorrow, another weak inversion could form at MCB as
temperatures cool in response to clear skies and light winds. A
period of IFR ceilings around 300 feet and resultant reduced
visibilties of around 3 miles could develop at MCB between 10z and
12z, and this is reflected in the forecast. PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Primarily a VFR forecast with only a very limited threat of fog
around sunrise Tuesday. Will carry a TEMPO mention at KHUM and
KMCB, but threat is non-zero elsewhere, just not high enough
confidence to carry in the forecast. Any fog that does develop
should rapidly dissipate around 14z. Other than some flat cumulus,
don`t expect much in the way of clouds tomorrow, either.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The waters will continue to see a persistent southeasterly flow of
around 10 knots through the weekend as high pressure dominates the
northern Gulf. Seas will also be fairly consistent in the 1 to 3
feet range through the period, and there will be no risk of
thunderstorm activity producing locally higher waves and seas. As
a result, continued good boating conditions are anticipated
through the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  68  88  69 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  91  71  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  88  71  88  73 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  88  73  87  75 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  86  73  85  74 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  86  71  85  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG