Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
971 FXUS64 KLIX 031740 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A drier airmass indicated by PW of 1.7 to 1.9 inches will be the direct result of an upper level ridge becoming more centered over the central Gulf coast. As sinking air aloft warms and dries, it will allow for the development of a mid-level temperature inversion around the 700mb or 10k feet level. This capping inversion will effectively limit updraft development, and this will lead to less overall shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the forecast area each day. At most, an isolated shower or weak thunderstorm could try to fire up along the seabreeze boundary where low level convergence is maximized. With this in mind, there are 20 to 30 percent PoP values in place for coastal Louisiana both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Less cloud cover and the drier air mixing down to the surface each day will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 90s. However, the drier air and lower humidity values will keep extreme heat at bay with heat index values of 100 to 105 expected on Thursday and Friday. These values are not uncommon for early July. [PG/DSS] && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Going further into the holiday weekend, our region will be in a somewhat interesting northeasterly flow aloft as a ridge sets up over the mid-south region. A mid/upper level weakness will develop over the Gulf waters and perhaps close off into an upper level low just south of our region by Saturday afternoon. Will continue to advertise lower POPs on Saturday, but this will be the end of the hot/dry-ish spell across the region. Going into the start of next week the ridge aloft shifts and weakens a bit allowing for the weakness aloft to meander over the Gulf. With this feature in relative close proximity an enhancement to daily diurnally driven convection will take place. Went on the higher end of CLIMO POPs through most of the medium range beyond Saturday. With convective coverage increasing and some modestly lower heights, temperatures will be a degree or two cooler early next week. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Mainly VFR with light NNW winds less than 10 kts prevail through the period. A couple of storms have developed NW of HDC this afternoon and could affect the site between 18-20Z. Have a TEMPO group to cover breezy winds and lower VIS due to heavy downpours. Convective coverage will be isolated this afternoon with low chances impacting many of the TAF sites. Some patchy fog may lower VIS at MCB in the pre- dawn hours Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Typical summertime conditions associated with high pressure over the area. Winds will be from the north around 10 kt with 1 to 2 ft seas through Saturday and switching to southerly, less than 10 kt, with resultant 1 ft seas. Convection through the early weekend is less likely, but increases later into the weekend and into the new week. Winds in the vicinity of the convection will be stronger and variable and can cause localized heavier seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 93 72 95 / 0 20 0 20 BTR 77 92 75 95 / 10 20 0 20 ASD 75 93 74 94 / 10 10 0 20 MSY 80 91 78 93 / 10 20 0 30 GPT 75 92 75 91 / 10 0 0 30 PQL 74 93 74 93 / 10 0 0 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION... MARINE...DS