Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 180757
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
257 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure centered near Washington, DC this morning with an
axis southwestward into east Texas. Upper troughs off the Atlantic
coast and over the Canadian Prairies. No significant cloud cover
or precipitation across the area. Away from direct marine
influences, temperatures are generally in the 50s and 60s early
this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Upper ridging builds into the area for Thursday and Friday, so
little in the way of precipitation through Friday. Not really much
difference in high temperature guidance through Friday, although I
wouldn`t be surprised to see highs a degree or two above guidance.
MET min temp guidance appears to be a little warm when compared to
GFS/ECMWF numbers and will go toward those cooler readings. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

As upper and surface highs move eastward, onshore flow will become
more established over the weekend. This will allow moisture to
return, with precipitation to return over the weekend as an upper
trough moves out of the Rockies. Several impulses will wrap around
the trough, aiding in the development of showers and thunderstorms
each day until the upper trough passes. The GFS has returned to
carrying an upper low, while the ECMWF carries a quicker moving
open trough. In coordination with neighboring offices, will hold
precipitation mention in the forecast through Monday. Temperatures
will remain unseasonably warm through the weekend with high
temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. Cooler weather arrives at
midweek. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

Could be some very low BR conditions at a few sites this morning as
moisture makes a return but the warming a the same time should keep
vis restrictions weak around 1-3sm otherwise VFR through 12z taf
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...

A broad general weakness over the central to southern gulf will
continue to interact with strong high pressure to the northeast
keeping most of the coastal waters in moderate easterly flow through
the week. The only areas that should escape these winds will be Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Borgne and the Mississippi Sound. There will be
a diurnal fluctuation each day in wind speeds with the highest being
found overnight.

A few showers will begin to make their way back to the coasal waters
later today but will be well offshore. These showers will gradually
begin covering more of the area through the weekend with a few
thunderstorms moving back into the fcast as early as Friday and
lasting through a frontal passage Sunday night or Monday.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  50  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  79  61  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  55  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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