Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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917
FXUS64 KLIX 210901
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
401 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Numbers of sh/ts will be low again today as we remain under a
drier and more subsident environment. The dry air is moving into
the area from the east and southeast. This is occurring as meso-
ridge waves rotate around the low to mid level stacked high
centered near the Carolinas. This will slowly change as a wave of
moisture moves in Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper low will also
contribute as it moves west very slowly.

One thing that is helping us stay tropical cyclone free is the
Bermuda ridge holding strong as it is connected with the stacked
high over the southwest CONUS. This provides a nice strong ridge
pattern from 500mb up and stretches across the entire southern
gulf coast. But this changes a bit through the week as the mid-
upper ridge breaks down Wednesday and Thursday. This will be due
to a trough, currently located over Saskatchewan Canada, digging
southward into the ridge by mid and late week. This will occur
rapidly through Tuesday then slows to a crawl as it approaches the
southeast CONUS. This weakness will keep the sh/ts going over our
area as well by weeks` end. But alas, the mid and upper Bermuda
ridge will not give in as it will build back over the area by
Friday.

.LONG TERM...
A possible wet weekend coming up and global models want to leave
the sfc weakness very close or even over the area into the first
of next week. This should keep the chances of sh/ts on the higher
than average side as we move through the weekend into the start of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA will show a low coverage again today. There will
not be enough probability to include in this taf cycle. VFR
conditions should be the prevailing conditions with the only
exception being some vis reduction due to BR or even FG for a
short time around sunrise. This should mainly affect terminals
west and north.

&&

.MARINE...No changes as high pressure remains the dominant
factor over the northern gulf. Diurnal fluctuations will remain the
main driver of winds. Most nights, look for a weak enhanced jet over
the waters east of the MS delta where winds could bump up to near 10
knots. Seas will remain around 2 ft or less.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: NOHSEP.
Activation: None.
Activities: DSS support for NOHSEP; Monitoring Convective trends.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  73  92  74 /  20  10  30  20
BTR  93  76  91  75 /  20  10  30  20
ASD  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  91  78  90  78 /  20  20  30  30
GPT  90  77  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  76  91  75 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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