Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 200839
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
339 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Expansive stacked high over the interior will remain for the next
few days causing heat levels to remain high especially over the
central portion of the nation. Around this feature, the infamous
"Ring of Fire" rotates in a clockwise fashion. Convective temps
will climb into the mid 90s today through Friday as precip water
values also fall to less than 2". This will help cause a
noticeable decrease in sh/ts coverage through Friday. But will
also cause an increase in temps and Heat Index values through
Friday. Oppressive heat is expected to affect the area but should
remain just under heat advisory criteria, although a few isolated
locations could actually reach 108 with no cloud cover.

Thunderstorms numbers will be at a minimun through at least
Friday. An upper low will retrograde from the South
Carolina/Georgia coast and begin to affect this area Friday night
into Saturday. By Sunday, rain chances fall back to normal levels
for this time of year.

Each day will present a potential for strong thunderstorms. The
greatest chance out of the next several days will be as the upper
low begin to swing through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditons will be the rule for this 12z taf pack. Some early
morning BR restricting vis to 4sm may be found over the usual
terminals such as HUM and MCB, otherwise no issues with the
exception of high density altitude implications.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be lighter and more variable through Friday with
landbreeze/seabreeze cycles dominating the wind flow pattern.
Offshore winds can be expected in the morning before switching to
an onshore component in the afternoon both today and Friday. This
weekend and early next, the pressure gradient will increase
slightly. Expect to see a prevailing onshore wind of around 10
knots develop and persist from Saturday through Monday. Seas of 1
to 2 feet can be expected through the period.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring Convective trends

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  75  92  73 /  20  10  40  30
BTR  95  76  94  75 /  20  10  40  20
ASD  95  76  92  75 /  20  20  40  20
MSY  94  77  92  76 /  20  20  40  20
GPT  94  77  92  77 /  20  20  40  20
PQL  94  75  92  74 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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