Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 242101
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
401 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Latest surface analysis showed a frontal zone from the Mid-
Atlantic States to northern Georgia to southern Mississippi to
Hill Country of Texas. Showers and thunderstorms have developed
around and west of Lake Pontchartrain. Upper air analysis showed a
broad trough over central and northeast CONUS, high over
southwest CONUS and Florida, and inverted trough over west Gulf.
So close to col, storm motion on vad wind profile was variable
less than 10 knots 1k to 13kft. However, storms were drifting
northeast. Precipitable water values on a planer view showed a
moisture axis of 2.1 to 2.2 inches from northern Georgia to
forecast area to east Texas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and south of
the frontal zone will maintain the threat of flooding rains
through this evening. While short range models show dissipation by
02z, will keep Flash Flood Watch to midnight. Upper level trough
over northern tier will shift east and allow northwest winds
through Sunday. Moisture axis will sag south through Sunday.
Frontal zone will press south to the coastal waters by Sunday
afternoon. However, mean relative humidity and precipitable water
value will remain elevated through Sunday afternoon and evening.

Surface high will build over the mid Mississippi Valley but flow
aloft will remain weak and mean relative humidity values remain
elevated across the south half of the area on Monday. Will
maintain below norm rain chances across the north and near norm
along the coast early Monday. Dry air will slowly push south
pushing convection over the coastal waters Monday afternoon and
Monday night. These moisture field will stationary through
Tuesday night. Ergo, rain chances will be limited to nil on
Tuesday. Surface high will finally slide east with return flow and
moisture on Wednesday. Rain chances will creep back into the
forecast on Wednesday and a good chance of rain by Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR and VFR clouds with FL015-025 ceilings will persist this
afternoon outside of convection. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms have develop along a line from KMSY to KBTR. The KMSY
activity is moving south and decaying. The KBTR storms are moving
northeast and strengthening. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall
will accompany most storms today. Convection should be on a
diminishing trend within the next couple hours. Likely to be a
period of VFR conditions this evening before MVFR ceilings return
after 06Z.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
The wind pattern over the coastal waters is quite light as a cold
front approaches the coastal waters from the north today. This will
allow residual swells to continue to relax. Moving into Sunday, that
cold front will gradually sag into the offshore waters. This will
bring winds around from southerly to northeasterly. Wind speeds will
increase to right at the cusp of exercise caution, 15kts, Sunday
night into Monday as the pressure gradient tightens. Over the
following 2 to 3 days, winds will remain elevated as an upper trough
to the north moves from west to east. This will keep surface high
pressure building in form the north.

MEFFER
&&


.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring Hydro/Convective trends

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.

Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.

Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.

Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  84  67  85 /  50  60  20  10
BTR  73  85  70  85 /  50  70  20  10
ASD  75  85  71  85 /  50  60  20  20
MSY  76  85  74  83 /  50  70  50  20
GPT  75  85  72  84 /  50  60  20  20
PQL  74  85  71  84 /  50  60  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...None.
&&

$$



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