Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 260144
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
744 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017
There were not any problems with the upper air release this
evening. The 00Z sounding indicated a very dry and stable
sounding. The precipitable water value was down to 0.24 inch.
North northwest winds prevailed below 800 mb while westerly flow
was observed throughout the remainder of the column. 11
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/
Fair weather through Sunday as high pressure takes hold and moves
east through Sunday. Moisture should begin to recover steadily
later Sunday as onshore flow onset and deepens in time ahead a
weak surface trough from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Texas
coast. This feature will be slow-moving with the models showing a
wet Lundi Gras on warm frontogensis region that lifts north late
Monday. Have maintained 50-60 percent rain chances for Monday with
rain essentially ending overnight before Mardi Gras Day
activities get underway.
Mardi Gras Day still appears to have a mostly dry look, but
moisture availability, some instability and unseasonably warm to
hot temperatures may still have some isolated convection develop
in daytime heating. Have maintained low end rain chances but most
areas should have favorable conditions. Developing low pressure
system in the Plains brings an active frontal zone to the area for
Ash Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement with
timing and extent of convection with the front, and eventual cold
air advection advancing into the area post-front.
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours with steady wind veering
from NW tonight through SE Sunday afternoon. Winds should remain
essentially 5 knots or less at all but KNEW and KMSY where lake
influences may maintain gustier conditions.
Advection slowly abating over the coastal waters with winds
beginning to settle this evening. winds become easterly during the
day Sunday then fully onshore by late afternoon into the evening.
This will bring moderate seas and a decent ground swell into the
north gulf before some gradient relaxation on Tuesday. A strong
cold front moves through the coastal waters overnight Wednesday
with cold air advection bringing stronger winds and building seas
DSS code: Green.
Activities: NOHSEP remote support.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 36 70 55 77 / 0 0 20 60
BTR 39 71 58 78 / 0 0 30 70
ASD 38 70 57 77 / 0 0 10 60
MSY 48 70 62 78 / 0 0 10 70
GPT 40 66 57 74 / 0 0 10 50
PQL 37 68 54 76 / 0 0 10 60