446
FXUS64 KLIX 280831
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
331 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

We will start out with an important feature in the form of a front.
Can`t legitimately call this a cold front since temps are as warm
behind it as ahead of it but by definition it would be because there
is an air mass change across its boundary via dew pts. This front
currently(2am) is located where the storms are ongoing this morning
along the Miss coast. The front is just off the coast south of
Pascagoula coming onshore just east of Gulfport to just north of
Hammond then snakes its way into west central LA and on into TX
south of Dallas. This boundary will help a very large complex of
elevated storms develop later today near the Red River Valley. This
complex should do two things, one is massively cold pool southward
toward the sfc boundary causing all kings of severe wx over central
TX todaya as it becomes sfc based. Smaller disturbances from this
will be able to use the frontal boundary to ride eastward as well.
This will act as a conduit for our area. The problem is stability
even with this boundary over the area. Numbers show where stability
quickly erodes as one moves west today so the marginal risk of
severe looks well placed as west of I55 is where downburst numbers
and the most severe wx producing numbers are highest relative to our
area. This scenario will play out over the next few if not several
days and it will be important to know where this or any other
boundaries are located on a daily basis. Instability numbers rise
for Wed and again they are indicating that if something can actually
break the cap and produce lightning it will likely become severe.
Again, with upper NW flow regimes, it is always a daily struggle to
find the processes in the mesoscale environment that will cause
trouble. So today is most visible vs. tomorrow. The current storms
moving along the cold pool boundary to the west from coastal Miss
and over the gulf will eventually modify and stall with the storms
gradually weakening. There is not one CAM that is showing any of
this activity, but the GFS did pick up on this convective burst
developing along this frontal boundary but it did not hang on to it
past midnight. Regarless, this is also the only model that is
keeping this modified cold pool near the western part of the CWA
later today. At least one disturbance should develop near the Toledo
Bend area and move east along the frontal boundary later today as
well. It is this activity that should collide with this modified
cold pool late this afternoon to cause at least some storms over the
western half of the area. The reason we can put a bit more
confidence in this is the existance of the features that will allow
it to occur and provide the travel path. Cloud cover and somewhat
slightly lower dew pts as this front will be near the coast later
today will help keep heat index numbers in check. But it will still
be hot. One can easily tell in this forecast where we and our
neighbors are placing the frontal boundary as the highest precip
numbers will be located along and south of its axis, for us this
mainly be the afternoon/evening hours. Areas to the north of these
higher precip numbers will get somewhat lower heat index values
while cloud cover along and ahead of it will keep others from those
numbers as well.

As a side note, BTR broke the record for the warmest low temp
yesterday(Monday). Also, this record of 82F has not been
reached(with respect to our records) for any day since January 1st
until *JULY 5th*. Yes, July 5th is the first time a low of 82F was
hit for the first time since Jan 1st of any year since records began
in 1892. And the record value of 82F on July 5th was set in 2016.
This record high(low) was not reached for more than another month
away. The odds of this occurring this early is insane.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

If it is difficult to tell what is going to occur tomorrow, it is
almost impossible to give an extended fcast in this kind of
environment. But we can see where the synoptic features should be
located, which gives us a better handle on areas that could be most
vulnerable to these MCS features. Looking at the extended through
the next several days, it looks as if there will be endless MCS
features develop daily and move east along either the sfc boundary
or the 850 boundary which will both be in flux on a daily basis as
these disturbances push and pull it each day. The sfc part of this
boundary fades by late Wed and is somewhat located along the Miss
River Valley by Thu and is out of the picture Fri. The only thing
steering these disturbances later in the week will be ThetaE
gradients or old outflow boundaries.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR will be found at all terminals through this taf period with the
exception of one or two. The most at risk terminal for IFR will be
BTR late today. The next would be HUM. There is a chance to get some
TSRA for these two locations and if this occurs, IFR conditions
could quickly develop for a short time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

There is a chance for temporarily getting a northerly brz over
waters to the east of the Miss River. This would be short lived and
would not be an issue as speeds should remain around 5kt. Southerly
winds of 10-15kt will remain over waters to the west of the river
and after today, all areas will be back in return flow at these
levels for the remainder of the week. Any storms that are capable of
developing or moving offshore will be able to produce erratic and
much higher wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  68  87  66 /  10  10  30  20
BTR  96  73  90  72 /  20  20  30  10
ASD  95  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  94  76  90  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  94  73  90  72 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  96  70  92  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE