753
FXUS65 KLKN 132151
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
251 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm conditions in the 80s and 90s will come to an end
over the weekend, as cooler weather returns. Dry condtions are
also in jeopardy of ending to begin next week, as the next
weather system approaches.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Friday night.

This afternoon the state will see two flow regimes converge
across areas of Nevada, as a cutoff low to the south brings
southwesterly flow to much of central Nevada, and some weak
troughing to the north and west brings westerly winds across parts
of northern Nevada. This area of upper level convergence combined
with some weak instability may kick off some isolated dry
thunderstorms across portions of northern and central Nevada this
afternoon. However, lift is fairly limited to extreme northeastern
Elko county, there is some lift across central Nevada but it
appears capped at 400 mb or so. This will limit storm growth.
Highs across the are remain on track to reach the upper 80s to mid
90s, with lows this evening in the upper 50s for most.

Tonight, the cutoff low will progress eastward resulting in weak
troughing in its wake. This will put the state under west to
southwest flow with breezy condtions. Winds 20-25 mph with gusts
to 30 mph possible. strongest winds will look to be across
Humboldt, Lander, and NW Nye counties. Highs Friday are forecasted
in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most, with lows in the upper
40s to lower 50s. Dry conditions will also result.

.LONG TERM... Saturday through next Thursday

Southwesterly flow will be over the forecast region Saturday and
Sunday as a deep upper low resides over B.C. Canada. Weather
across northern and central Nevada will be relatively benign with
dry conditions and daily temperatures trending cooler from the
north in response to the low and associated cooler air mass.
temperatures look to be a few degrees cooler than average across
the forecast area by Sunday or Monday. The typical afternoon
breezes with gusts in the 20 to 25 MPH range can be expected.

Latest numerical solutions coming into better agreement regarding
the impending upper low and surface front to move into the
forecast area from the northwest Monday. Upper energy ejecting
from the backside of the upper low over B.C. will effectively
increase the amplitude of the upper trof with a frontal boundary
subsequently indicated to clip northern Nevada. Sensible weather
effects will be gusty winds, especially across northern Nevada,
and increased probability of precipitation. Have introduced light
rain showers along and north of the I-80 corridor for Monday, and
over northern Elko County Tuesday. Significant accumulations are
not expected at this time.

Dry northwesterly flow indicated for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at
all terminals. Breezes throughout the region and cumulus build
ups near KBAM and KEKO will dissipate thru the evening with mostly
clear skies and light to calm winds tonight. Westerly afternoon
breezes will be in place tomorrow with gusts 20KTS to 30KTS. A few
daytime cumulus can also be expected over the region but there
will be no threat of thunderstorms or significant buildups.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated dry thunderstorms may occur this
afternoon across portions of zones 470,469,438, and 424, while
elsewhere remains fairly quiet. Hot temperatures continue
tomorrow, with elevated winds across much of the state. RH
percentages generally remain in the 10-15% range on Friday, with
slow recoveries over the weekend. Temperatures cool down into the
upper 70s to low 80s for most. No active weather aside from the
isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon is expected through the
weekend.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures will continue to reside warmer than
average thru tomorrow before cooling several degrees over the
weekend with weather remaining cool next week. Decreases in river
and creek flows will continue to be observed as high elevation
snow pack continues to diminish and temperatures cool. However,
flows along the lower Humboldt River will remain elevated for the
next several days as enhanced runoff from the previous several
days continues to make its way thru the flowage.

The Humboldt River near Battle Mountain will continue to reside
in action stage for the next several days. The river is forecast
to begin receding.

Wildhorse Reservoir will continue to reside in action stage for
the next several days.

Lamoille Creek will continue to reside in action stage for the
next several days. Diurnal fluctuations in height and discharge
will also continue though the creek looks less likely to peak into
minor flood stage as flows begin to ease.

The Humboldt River at Comus continues to observe increasing flow
with the river forecast to enter action stage in the next day or
two. The CNRFC forecast indicates that the river will enter minor
flood stage early next week.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/92/92/91