996
FXUS65 KLKN 070958
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
258 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Another upper-level disturbance and residual moisture
will promote another round of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and hail will be the primary
threats. Active weather will continue through the weekend at least
for northern Nevada with more daytime showers and thunderstorms
before drier conditions settle in next week. Temperatures will
remain above normal for the region with upper 80s to low 90s for
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night

Atmospheric setup remains conducive for convection again this
afternoon. Ample mid-level moisture with an upper-level wave
moving through the region and daytime heating will allow for
showers and thunderstorms across much of northern and eastern
Nevada today. Today has the greatest chances for wetting rains
(reaching or exceeding 0.10" of rain) across central and eastern
Nevada today with 20-30% across much of Eureka, White Pine and
Elko counties. Although the sub-cloud layer (below about 600 mb)
is not quite as dry as yesterday, a few severe downburst winds are
possible, especially in Elko county early this afternoon. Drier
air ushered into west central Nevada today will reduce convection
from west to east late this afternoon into the evening hours.
Overall winds will be light under weak flow aloft and lack of
surface pressure gradients. Temperatures will be hot in the pre-
convective environment, rising into the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Lows will be in the 50s with some lower 60s in lower valleys.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

Sunday, a shortwave moves through Idaho and northern Nevada.
Instability and moisture remains present for isolated to numerous
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly north of
and including the I-80 corridor. Model surface based CAPE and
DCAPE are currently showing values over 1000 J/kg which could lead
to an environment of gusty and erratic outflows winds, some of
which could reach severe strength. Highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s, with lows in the 50s.

Monday, some residual moisture and instability from the passing
shortwave, may produce some isolated showers and storms across
Eureka, White Pine and Elko counties during the afternoon.
Elsewhere, quiet conditions are expected. Highs will generally be
in the 80s with some areas pushing 90. Lows will be in the 50s.

Tuesday through Friday, zonal flow will keep things relatively
quiet, with dry conditions and highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
Wednesday through Friday, winds will be breezy and out of the
west during the afternoon 15-20 mph with locally higher gusts.
Lows in the 50s.

Some spread appears in the models Friday and beyond, however
cluster analysis hints at some troughing possible which could
signal a cool down of sorts.

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms will develop over much of the region
again this afternoon, with the main concern being strong gusty
winds of 50kts or more. Thunderstorm outflow winds may also
produce blowing dust, with local reductions to VIS. With cloud
bases up around 10-12k feet today, not expecting too much in the
way of rain, though there is a chance of pea size to penny size
hail. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid to late evening
hours. The greatest chance for TS remains at KEKO and KELY at
around 45% this afternoon with lesser chances west along I-80.and
US-50.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Persistent above normal temperatures are expected to
increase remaining snowpack melt on mountain tops. Showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and Friday could produce wetting
rains over the remaining snowpacks, leading to rapid increases in
flows in some of the creeks and streams.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly
rise but remain in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations
in height between action stage and minor flood stage. Additional
snow melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille
Creek near or above minor flood stage this evening.

Jarbidge River is forecast to slowly rise but remain in action
stage over the next few days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93/91/96