221
FXUS65 KLKN 130907
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
207 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
across portions of central and northeast Nevada. These storms may
be accompanied by light rain showers later in the afternoon and
evening. Afternoon breezes to 30 mph are possible, though any
thunderstorm could produce convective outflows to 45 mph. Highs
will continue to be above normal with readings in the upper 80s to
mid 90s. Look for drier conditions Friday along with cooling
conditions through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. Clouds have diminished
across central Nevada this morning, resulting in mainly clear
skies. The main features for today are a large upper level high
pressure rotating across southern New Mexico and a closed upper
low that is expected to slowly drift to the northeast today with a
position in southern California later tonight. Low level
convergence is expected to develop across central through
northeast Nevada. Initially, isolated dry thunderstorms will form
in central Nevada as CAPE values are forecast to be around
100-300J/kg, with higher values in northern Elko county. As a
result, more wet storms are expected across northern Elko county.
In addition, storm motions during the latter portions of the
afternoon and evening will be around 5 to 10 knots. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Winds will be
breezy in the afternoon with gusts to 25 mph. Look for sprinkles
during the evening and overnight hours in Elko county, otherwise
skies will be mostly clear. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

On Friday and Friday night, the aforementioned upper low will be
moving across Arizona and Utah during the day. For northern and
central Nevada, southwest flow will develop as an upper low
pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest states. Southwest
winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will develop in the
afternoon. Afternoon buildups are possible over eastern Elko
county with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Highs will be in the 80s
and 90s. Look for mostly clear conditions for the overnight period
with lows in the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday

Warming trend is expected to end as models are showing a strong
upper level trough moving in from the northwest, bringing in moist
and much cooler air. Temperatures will begin to cool off over the
weekend starting from the north, with Saturday highs having
northern Nevada in the 70s, while central Nevada is in the 80s.
Further each day, the cooler temperatures move southward and
bringing high temperatures into the 70s on Sunday, 60s-70s by
Monday, and Tuesday in the 60s. Low temperatures are also expected
to cool down with lows into the 30s to 40s with Monday and Tuesday
nights the coolest, as some higher elevations could see low
temperatures below freezing. This cold front is expected to
increase chances for isolated showers, however it will be in
northern Nevada with chances below 25% on Monday and Tuesday.
Northwesterly winds also expected to increase in the afternoons at
10-20 mph.

Wednesday, there is low confidence on the weather pattern as some
models show the upper level trough strengthening while others
show it weakening but remain over northwest U.S. and into central
U.S.. Temperature trends expected to return to warming with high
on Wednesday back into the 70s with calmer weather and
southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at
all terminals. Afternoon breezes are again expected with gusts
generally around 20KTS and high based cumulus will also be
present with towering cumulus across the region. 15% probability
for thunderstorms at KBAM and KEKO this afternoon as well, though
not enough confidence for storms on terminal to include in the
TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mid-level moisture and instability will combine to
bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of central and
northeast Nevada today. Storm motions are forecast to slow later
this afternoon and any storms are expected to trend towards a mix
of wet and dry storms in central Nevada, to mostly wet storms in
northeast Nevada. Some afternoon breezes to 30 mph are possible,
though any convective outflows to 45 mph are possible from any
thunderstorm. Look for gradually cooling, though dry conditions
through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures will continue to reside warmer than
average through Friday before cooling several degrees for the
weekend. This will allow remaining high mountain snow-pack to
continue to melt at a quicker rate. Dry and mostly sunny weather
is expected, with little threat of showers or thunderstorms
bringing a rain on snow event this week as well.

The Humboldt River near Battle Mountain will continue to reside
in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir will continue to reside in action stage for
the next several days.

Lamoille Creek will continue to reside in action stage for the
next several days. Diurnal fluctuations in height and discharge
will also continue with the creek peaking during the evening
hours.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

86/97/92