455
FXUS65 KLKN 012001
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
101 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A few quick moving northern stream troughs look to
clip the Silver State for the start of June, but any moisture
looks skirt the edges of the Silver Stat. However attention turns
mid week as high pressure looks to build over Nevada bringing the
first taste of Summertime weather for many.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday

Weak upper trough passing to our north will push a weak wind
shift line trough northern Nevada this evening. This system
despite weak upper level lift, does have decent mid level moisture
which has helped it persist in generating some mid level
convective build-ups with some occasional bursts of virga across
parts of Humboldt, Elko, and White Pine counties this morning.
This trend is expected to continue as daytime heating progresses,
the atmosphere is forecast to become moderately unstable in mid to
upper levels, leading to a low chance, 10% to 25%, of a few
isolated thundershowers across far eastern Nevada this evening.
However, given the very dry low level environment as indicated by
strong inverted V profiles in this morning sounding, any storms
that develop will likely be dry with gusty outflow winds and
perhaps some localized blowing dust being the main threats. By
late this evening storms should quickly dissipate due to the
combined effects of loss of daytime heating and mid level moisture
being pushes into Utah with the passage of the cool front. Sunday
looks to be on the quiet side as a weak shortwave ridge builds in
over NV. Temperatures continue to be warm for the weekend, as the
frontal passage act to only slow the warm up, as highs will range
in the upper 70 to upper 80s, and lows dropping into the mid 40s
to upper 50s. Winds will start westerly tonight shifting to NW
this evening. with speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH
possible. Winds Sunday will be light out of the NW at 5 to 10 MPH
with an occasional gust up to 25 MPH

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday. Models continue to show
an upper level low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest,
coming ashore over British Columbia, Canada on Monday. Winds will
be breezy to windy during the afternoon with speeds of 15 to 25
mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph. At this time, wind magnitudes are
expected to approach advisory thresholds but areal coverage will
be local and not widespread enough to warrant a headline. However,
will continue to monitor. Isolated to scattered showers will
develop across the northern sections of the forecast area, mainly
north of and including I-80. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s.
Expect mostly cloudy skies during the evening with gradual
clearing from west to east towards the morning hours. Lows will be
in the 40s with some of the warmer locations seeing the low 50s.

Heights begin to rise as upper level high pressure builds over the
Desert Southwest. This will occur from Tuesday through roughly
Thursday morning. The weather is expected to remain on the quiet
and dry side with a warming trend. For Tuesday, highs will be in
the 80s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Dry conditions will continue
Wednesday but high temperatures rapidly climb into the 80s and
90s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Moisture is being advertised by
the model solutions on Thursday which may produce light, isolated
showers. Highs will remain warm with readings in the 90s and lows
in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue through the next 24
hours at all terminals. Winds will diminish this evening but will
return Sunday afternoon SW-W10-20G30KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flows on many small creeks and streams remain
elevated. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle
Mountain currently in action stage and is expected to remain there
for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to
remain in action stage for the next several days.

Finally, Lamoille Creek will be hovering around action stage for
the next couple days and may even increase slightly as
temperatures slowly climb higher in the afternoon period.



&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

98/86/86