426
FXUS65 KLKN 110840
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
140 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures are forecast to continue through
Friday as zonal upper level flow keeps Nevada dry. However, a
pattern change starts to develop for the weekend as an upper
trough will be poised to deliver cooler temperatures across the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday

Upper level low which has been responsible for the thunderstorm
chances over the last week has fully cut off from the main upper
flow and will continue to meander offshore of southern California
for the next few days. With the loss upper support and mid level
moisture, what is left of the elevated boundary across central
Nevada will only be able to scrounge up a few convective build ups
with a little virga but not much else. By Wednesday, the warm
temperatures will be the lone headline for the next few days, as a
quiet zonal pattern develops over the Silver state with light
winds and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Temperatures
continue to be warm through midweek as highs will range in the
upper 80 to upper 90s, and lows dropping into the low 50s to low
60s. Winds will light to breezy in the afternoons out of the west
at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible, the strongest
winds will be across northern NV as stronger upper level flow
supports stronger afternoon breezes. Winds in the evening to
overnight will be light and variable.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

A closed upper low situated along the coast of SoCal Thursday
morning progress inland while also weakening into an open wave.
The wave is indicated to reside over the four corners region by
Friday night. Modest southwesterly flow will be over the forecast
area thru the end of the week and into Saturday. This will make
for dry weather and relatively benign conditions aside from the
typical afternoon breezes. Afternoon cumulus can also be expected
around the region thru the weekend. Temperatures continue to
reside warmer than average thru at least Friday. Temperatures
become closer to average during the weekend under lowering heights
as a deep low pressure system moves into BC Canada.

Numerical solutions are coming into slightly better agreement in
the latest runs with regard to an upper low and surface front
moving into northern Nevada from the northwest early next week.
Timing is settling into the Tuesday timeframe for the event with
gusty winds likely along with increased probability of
precipitaton. Low confidence continues to be expressed in the
details of this event with changes in timing also possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hour period.
Gusty winds of 10-12 kts gusts 15-20 kts expected in the afternoon
at all terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue
through Friday of this week leading to increased melting of the
remaining snow-pack at high elevations and on mountain tops. An
upper level trough is forecast to move through the area over the
weekend which will bring cooler temperatures across the region
which may reduce melting rates and ease flooding concerns.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly
rise but remain in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height
between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow
melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek
near or above minor flood stage in the next several days.

The Jarbidge River is trending lows but is expected to remain in
action stage at least through today.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

98/92/97