241
FXUS65 KLKN 100911
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
211 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures are expected to continue this week
with thunderstorm chances however coming to an end Tuesday, as
upper level low drifts south away from the Silver state allowing
for a dry zonal flow pattern to develop by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tuesday

Upper level low which has been responsible for the thunderstorm
chances over the last week will be fully cut off from the main
upper flow by Monday evening. This low is forecast to remain over
coastal southern California for the next few days. As this low
cuts off the frontal zone that was associated with the system will
be stalled over central NV as is forecast to dissipate Tuesday,
but not before giving central NV another chance for an isolated
mix of wet and dry thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening.
While thunderstorms are possible all along the US 50 corridor,
the best chance at any moisture from storms will be restricted to
eastern White Pine county as the best moisture in the mid levels
will be concentrated there. As with the last few days the main
hazards from the storms that do form will be gusty outflow winds,
lightning, and brief heavy rainfall, and hail up to the size of
quarters for the few wet storms that form. Tuesday will again see
convective build ups across central NV but moisture levels will be
insufficient for precipitation but some high based virga cant be
ruled out. Temperatures continue to be warm for the start of the
work week as highs will range in the upper 80 to upper 90s, and
lows dropping into the low 50s to low 60s. Winds will light to
breezy in the afternoons out of the west at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts
up to 25 MPH possible. Winds in the evening to overnight will be
light and variable.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.

A closed upper low looks to be situated along the coast of SoCal
Wednesday with a zonal flow pattern over northern Nevada and a
weak south/southwesterly flow over central Nevada thanks to the
position of the upper low. This will make for dry weather and
relatively benign conditions aside form the typical afternoon
breezes. Afternoon cumulus can also be expected around the region
with PWAT values remaining modest, currently progged to reside
under 0.50 thru the weekend. Numerical guidance indicates that
the closed low will progress inland Thursday while also weakening
into an open wave. The wave is indicated to reside over the four
corners region by Friday night. No appreciable change to the
weather over northern and central Nevada is expected.

A more potent trof and attendant surface cold front may move into
the forecast area from the northwest in the Sunday night or
Monday time frame, bringing stronger winds and higher
probabilities of precipitation for at least northern Nevada.
However, numerical solutions differ in timing and strength of this
potential system with some solutions bringing the system thru
Nevada as late as mid next week. Low confidence is expressed at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with
light winds of 5-15 knots at all terminals. Cumulus build-ups
will develop Monday afternoon and evening with a few showers and
thunderstorms possible in portions of central and eastern NV.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Above normal temperatures are continuing to increase
remaining snow-pack melt on mountain tops. Showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon will mostly confined to central NV
ans are forecast to be mostly of the dry variety so a significant
rain on snow situation is not expected. After Tuesday thunderstorm
chances will be ending but the above normal temperatures are
forecast to continue through the weekend

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly
rise but remain in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height
between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow
melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek
near or above minor flood stage in the next several days.

The Jarbidge River is trending lows but is expected to remain in
action stage at least through today.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

98/92/90