507
FXUS65 KLKN 141016
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
316 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather at the start of the with Saturday high
temperatures a couple degrees above normal for this time of year.
By the end of the weekend and through the week, strong
thunderstorms possible with widespread rain and high elevation
snow across central and northern Nevada.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Saturday through Sunday

Saturday, quiet and warmer than normal weather expected throughout
the day with a few breezy winds at 10-20 mph, gusts up to 25 mph
over parts of central Nevada. High temperatures will be a couple
degrees above normal in the 80s with lows in the 50s.

Sunday, the quiet start to the day will change as an upper level
low makes its way across the state, bringing in increasing chances
for isolated showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon. Chances
start at or below 20% with increasing cloud cover, with chances
increasing up to 75% for northern Nevada by the evening hours.
Winds associated with this front will increase in from the south
up to 10-25 mph sustained with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Temperatures cool down from the passing cold front with highs in
the 70s throughout the region with a few valley spots still
reaching into the 80s. The cold front will impact overnight lows
as it passes further into the state, making lows drop into the low
40s to upper 30s for higher elevations. Some mountain tops could
see some snow.


&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday

An upper level low centered over central CA early Monday morning
will drift northeastward through the day, centering over northern
NV by Monday evening which will bring a mixed bag of weather to
the CWA. Winds will be strongest over east central NV (mainly
White Pine county) on Monday where southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph
gusting 30 to 40 mph are expected. There is a 15 to 25 percent
chance of thunderstorm on Monday across roughly the eastern half
of the CWA. And finally, rainfall is expected to continue across
most of the western and northern portions of the CWA through the
day and into the overnight hours. By noon Tuesday the upper level
low will have lifted to the northeast, centering over eastern
Idaho. Precipitation will taper off from west to east Tuesday
afternoon with only a few light rain showers over northern NV
Tuesday evening. Storm total QPF amounts from Sunday night through
Tuesday afternoon look to be impressive, with around an inch
across Humboldt county, tapering to around a half inch along the
line from Gabbs northeast to Montello. The southeastern third of
the CWA including most of White Pine and northeastern Nye county
is expected to have between a trace and a third of an inch of
rain.

Only a brief break in the rainfall Tuesday afternoon and evening
before a second system approaches from the northwest. Wednesday
afternoon this next system will be centered along the central CA
coast, then pass eastward through southern NV by Thursday night.
This system will bring lighter QPF amounts most of the CWA.
However, latest model runs now prog between 1 and 2 thirds of an
inch of rain to southern Lander and Eureka counties along with
the NW corner of Nye county. The rest of the CWA is expected to
receive between 0.05 and 0.25 inches of rain.

Northwesterly flow aloft on Friday will back to a more zonal flow
on Saturday with dry conditions both days.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next
24 hours. S-SW winds on Saturday across the region, with
afternoon and early evening gusts to 15kts at KWMC KBAM and KEKO,
and around 20kts at KTPH and KELY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions expected for
central Nevada Saturday afternoon due to low RH and southerly wind
gusts up to 25 mph. Sunday afternoon, elevated fire weather
conditions for central Nevada due to RH values near 15% and
southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph. Widespread wetting rain is
expected Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Rain amounts of
up to one to one-and-a-half inch possible north of the I-80
corridor while up to half an inch is possible between Highway 50
and I-80 Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon.



&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

97/96/96/97