464
FXUS65 KLKN 091926
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1226 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue across much of central and northeastern Nevada this
afternoon. Gusty outflow winds, brief moderate to heavy rainfall
and cloud to ground lightning are primary threats. A weak cold
front will try to move through the area later in the night,
bringing slightly cooler conditions to northern Nevada tomorrow
with with several degrees of cooling. Shower coverage will be
even less tomorrow afternoon with drier and hot conditions
settling back into the region Tuesday, persisting through to late
this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Clouds are on the
increase and showers and thunderstorms are on the increase.
Expect the coverage of showers and thunderstorms to continue for
the afternoon. Some storms near the border with Idaho could be
strong and long lived with the main threats of wind gusts to 60
mph and small hail. Surface dewpoints continue to remain rather
high for this time of year with readings in the 40s in northern
Nevada with the 30s seen in central Nevada. Look for the showers
and thunderstorms to continue through the early evening hours as a
cold front tries to move through the area through the overnight
period. Lows will be in the 50s.

For Monday and Monday night, drier air will move into the region,
though sufficient moisture will exist for afternoon build-ups
across central Nevada, along with an isolated dry thunderstorm or
possibly a mix of wet and dry storms in portions of northern White
Pine and southern Elko counties during the day time. Highs
tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday with readings in
the 80s to near 90 degrees. Winds will generally be light.
Conditions are expected to quiet down during the Monday night
period with skies scattering out by the late night timeframe.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

Ensemble models show an off-cut-low forming and heading south of
the coast of Mexico, however the low will be too far south to
bring any more instability and moisture over the silver state,
leaving room for a weak upper level ridge to form with drier and
warmer air. High temperature are expected to gradually rise with
Tuesday highs in the upper 80s and 90s, then Wednesday and
Thursday highs in the 90s to near triple digits. Low temperatures
are also expected to rise, but stay in the 50s each night. Breezy
winds expected each afternoon with Tuesday winds more westerly at
10-15 mph, Wednesday with westerly/southwesterly winds at 10-15
mph, and Thursday winds from the south at 10-20 mph.

Overnight Thursday and into Friday, the off-cut-low is expected to
move northeast towards the four corners, however chances for
isolated showers remains low below 20% for northeastern Nevada.
Temperatures are expected to be cooler with highs back in the 80s
to low 90s and overnight lows in the lower 50s. Westerly winds
shifting to northwesterly expected in the afternoon at 15-25 mph.

Over the weekend, as the off-cut-low moves east, models are
showing a low pressure system moving over northwestern U.S. and
potentially reaching towards northern Nevada. No chances for
weather is expected from this low as it only glances over
northern Nevada giving near zonal westerly flow, however it is
expected to bring much cooler temperatures, with highs dropping
into the 70s and 80s on Saturday, and by Sunday dropping to almost
in the upper 60s for highs, but be in the 80s for central Nevada.
Lows also expected to be cooler dropping down in the 40s to 50s
both nights. Breezy westerly/northwesterly winds expected both
afternoons at 10-15 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated weather activity this afternoon and into the
evening hours for all northern terminals. Winds of 10 kts gusts
20-25 kts at all terminals and is expected to dissipate during the
evening hours. VFR conditions dominant, with MFVR conditions or
low possible from passing storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Above normal temperatures are expected to increase
remaining snowpack melt on mountain tops. Showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and Sunday will mostly be limited in
rainfall so a significant rain on snow situation is not expected.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly
rise but remain in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height
between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow
melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek
near or above minor flood stage in the next several days.

The Jarbidge River is trending lows but is expected to remain in
action stage at least through today.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/97/97