164
FXUS66 KLOX 162058
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
158 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...16/135 PM.

Strong onshore flow and a persistent marine layer will remain in
place at least through the weekend. Night through morning low
clouds and fog will be a staple of the forecast, clearing to the
beaches each afternoon. Breezy to gusty onshore winds will occur
each afternoon and evening across the interior valleys and
adjacent foothill areas. Some warming with earlier clearing is
possible next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...16/144 PM.

Very seasonably typical deep marine layer pattern this week and
likely at least through the weekend as a weak troughing pattern
continues to promote strong onshore flow. Temperatures will
remain 3-6 degrees below normal across coast and valley into the
weekend with slow (if any) clearing. Most valley areas should see
at least some clearing in the afternoon but coastal areas will
struggle, especially south of Pt Conception. Some drizzle is
possible each morning, especially up against the coastal
foothills. Farther inland such as the Antelope Valley, mountains,
and interior SLO County skies will remains clear but breezy in the
afternoon (especially near the AV) with temperatures a few
degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/157 PM.

There is growing confidence that this persistent marine
layer/strong onshore flow pattern will at least temporarily take a
break early next week. The NAEFS ensemble gradients agree with
the deterministic model gradients in showing a much weaker onshore
flow by Tuesday following the passage of a trough through the
Great Basin. This would create a stronger northerly component to
the winds which will promote much earlier marine layer clearing
and a warming trend for coast and valleys. Current forecast for
next week still on the conservative side with very little change
in temperatures, but if the ensembles continues to trend this
direction the forecast should indicate a warming trend to at least
normal temperatures soon.

&&

.AVIATION...16/2019Z.

At 20Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was 5000 feet with a temperature of 22 C.

Moderate confidence in coastal, valley, and foothills TAFs, and
high confidence in desert TAFs. Skies will continue clearing this
afternoon north of Point Conception. Farther south, low stratus
will generally persist at coastal, valley, and foothills sites,
though there is a 30% chance for cigs to temporarily become VFR
22Z-02Z. Expect similar conds tonight compared to last night, with
widespread cig restrictions for coastal, valley, and foothills
TAF sites. Timing of cig restrictions could vary +/- 3 hours of
current forecasts. For desert sites, VFR conditions are expected
with west-southwest winds gusting to 30 kt during the afternoon
and evening.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that
cigs will scatter out between 22Z and 02Z. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that
cig restrictions persist thru the day.

&&

.MARINE...16/119 PM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
There is a 40% chance that winds reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels this afternoon and evening -- highest chances in the
southern two zones (PZZ673/676). There is a 20-40% chance of SCA
winds/seas over the outer waters Sun night thru Tue -- highest
chances in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673). Otherwise SCA
conds are not expected.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, high forecast confidence.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels thru Tue.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate to high
forecast confidence. There is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in
the western portion of the SBA Channel this afternoon/evening and
again during the afternoons of Mon and Tue. Otherwise, SCA conds
are not expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Cohen/DB
MARINE...Cohen/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox