Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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536
FXUS66 KLOX 072158
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
158 PM PST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

It will be breezy across Ventura and Los Angeles Counties today
with slightly warmer temperatures across the region. There is a
chance of precipitation late tonight through Saturday, mainly
north of Point Conception. Temperatures will be warmer next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

Satellite imagery this afternoon showing some mid to high level
clouds embedded in NW flow aloft moving through the region. There
have been some reports of sprinkles with the cloud mass moving
through SLO County, but nothing more than a trace expected as that
moves southward. Despite weak offshore flow, temperatures this
afternoon are a few degrees below normal in most places.

Most of the excitement through Saturday will occur north of Pt
Conception. A weak frontal system will stall out on the Central
Coast tonight, then a couple of disturbances will ride along the
front, bringing unsettled weather north of Pt Conception through
Saturday. Northern SLO County could see some light rain as early
as late tonight, but the first round of steadier rain will likely
hold off until the daytime tomorrow. Precip will probably become
more showery tomorrow night. Another round of steady rain is
possible on Friday, although the 18z NAM has backed off on this
idea compared to the 12z run (12z GFS still shows it). Friday
night into Saturday will likely become showery again, with slight
chance to chance PoPs (mainly north of Pt Conception). The rain
threat should come to an end by Saturday night.

Rainfall totals through Saturday will likely range from 1-2" in
NW SLO County to 0.10-0.25" in the Santa Maria area. Localized
2-3" amounts are not out of the question for the favored coastal
slopes in NW SLO County. However, peak rainfall rates should
remain below 0.25" per hour near the Chimney Fire burn area, so
debris flows are not a concern. No thunderstorms expected either.
Some light precip could fall as far south as the Ventura County
mountains, but snow levels are expected to remain above at least
8000 ft, so snow will not be an issue. Overall, impacts with this
period of unsettled weather will be very minimal.

Not much to talk about for areas south of Pt Conception through
Saturday. Slight warming is expected tomorrow as weak offshore
flow continues in the morning, but temperatures will remain
slightly below normal, with highs in the 60s. Not much change in
temperatures on Friday and Saturday. Mostly cloudy skies will be
possible at times, as the weak disturbances pass to the north, but
there will probably be times with mostly clear skies as well.
There could be some weak sundowner-type winds starting Saturday
night.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

Models are in good agreement that the early part of next week
should be pretty quiet weatherwise. NW flow will become
established aloft on Sunday as an upper-level ridge starts to
build aloft off the West Coast. This will likely lead to a drying
trend, with the chance for some sundowner-like winds again on
Sunday night.

Gradual warming is expected through the middle of next week as the
upper-level ridge off the coast builds eastward. Northerly flow
should help with the warming for coastal and valley areas south of
Pt Conception as well. Temperatures for the early and middle part
of next week will be slightly above normal, with highs generally
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1750Z.

At 17Z...There was no marine layer at KLAX, but there is a low
level moist layer.

Small and random patches of MVFR cigs will remain over Los
Angeles County through 21Z, but low confidence on where and when
they move over any airport. Otherwise high confidence in VFR
through tonight with periods of lowering high clouds. A weak
frontal system will likely bring -RA and cigs 015-025 to KPRB
(after 15Z) and KSBP (after 18Z) on Thursday. There is a 30
percent chance for such conditions at KSMX after 20Z Thursday.
Elsewhere, moderate confidence in no rain or cigs below 030.

KLAX...20 percent chance of brief cigs around 025 through 21Z.
Otherwise high confidence in VFR through Thursday with periods of
lowering high clouds.

KBUR...30 percent chance of brief cigs around 025 through 21Z.
Otherwise high confidence in VFR through Thursday with periods of
lowering high clouds.

&&

.MARINE...07/100 PM.

High confidence in winds staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels everywhere through Friday morning, except for SCA South
winds likely beyond 10 miles off the Central Coast tonight into
Thursday...and possibly again on Friday. More widespread SCA level
northwest winds are likely Friday night and Saturday, possibly
affecting the western portions of the inner waters including the
Santa Barbara Channel and the Santa Monica Basin. Expect
increasingly choppy short period seas as well Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM
      PST Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(SAT-WED)

Gusty northwest winds could affect Santa Barbara County and
northern Los Angeles County on Saturday or Sunday.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sukup
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...Kj

weather.gov/losangeles



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