Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 300259
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...AS EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDED
DOWNWARD 3 TO 10 DEGREES TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. ONLY A FEW SITES
REACHED TRIPLE DIGITS INCLUDING WOODLAND HILLS AT 102. WHILE OJAI
AND LANCASTER REACHED 100 TODAY. THE ONLY AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES
SOARED UP THIS EVENING WAS POTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
WHERE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SUNDOWNER WAS OCCURRING THIS EVENING. A
SPOTTER IN SANTA BARBARA CITY SAID THE TEMPERATURE REACHED THE MID
90S AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING. GOLETA CONTINUES TO STAY IN THE LOWER
90S THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE AFFECTING AREAS FROM
GAVIOTA TO GOLETA. LATEST SBA-SMX SURFACE GRADIENT WAS A WHOPPING -
4.9 MB. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND REFUGIO AND
SLIGHTLY LESS AT GAVIOTA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT.

LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED A THIN LINE OF STRATUS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST APPROACHING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY LOW CLOUDS TO EDDY INTO THE SANTA BARBARA AREA DUE
TO THE GUSTY AND DRY WINDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS SLO COUNTY.

SYNOPTICALLY...A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST TOWARDS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND LOWER WHILE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BEST COOLING INLAND WHERE VALLEYS AND INTERIOR AREAS
SHOULD LOWER 4 TO 7 DEGREES SUNDAY. WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE
MID 90S MAKING TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL OR TICK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS HE LA
COUNTY COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
NEAR LAX INDICATED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1000 FT WITH A
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THAT. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR
OUT FAIRLY EARLY...BUT IF CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND WITH
THIS STRONG INVERSION...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE COAST. THE VENTURA COUNTY
COAST COULD SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT NOT
THAT CONFIDENT. AND NOT EXPECTING ANY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE SBA SOUTH
COAST DUE TO THE SUNDOWNER WINDS TONIGHT.

MON-TUE...EXPECT CONTINUED COOLING ACROSS THE REGION BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE PICKING
UP ON AN EDDY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING AFFECTING
ALL COAST AND MOST COASTAL VALLEYS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...GUIDANCE BETWEEN SUITES WERE CONSISTENT WITH
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS ADVANCES EAST AND SHIFTS INLAND.
OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
AS A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MARINE
LAYER PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0010Z

AT 0000Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z INLAND TAFS  AND KSBA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ALL OTHER COASTAL TAFS. 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT NO CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KLGB AND KLAX AFTER 08Z.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR LLWS AROUND KSBA AFTER
23Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FROM 09Z-14Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SUNDAY MORNING. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 11Z-14Z

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM.

ALL OUTER WATERS WILL HAVE NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT NOW LOOKS LIKELY THAT
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

INNER WATERS...80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE. ZONE 645 FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE SCA LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.  THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SIMILAR PATTERN COULD
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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