Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 310554 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS SANTA ANA CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER IS
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND SOME ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SBA COUNTY PORTION.
S OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND ALONG THE ENTIRE
COAST AND MOVE INLAND TO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS OVERNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE SALINAS RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME
HI CLOUDS AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
NIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER SRN CA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SE
ON TUE...WITH WEAK UPPER TROFFINESS MOVING IN. A BROAD WLY FLOW
ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG WITH SLOWLY LOWERING
500 MB HEIGHTS. IT LOOKS LIKE MORE UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD
AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TUE NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. SOME CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE N
MTN SLOPES WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS AT TIMES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THRU THU.

NORTHERLY GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM LATER TUE AND
PERSIST INTO THU. GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST
EACH AFTERNOON...BUT BE STRONGEST TUE AND WED...AND MAY APPROACH OR
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT
THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S COAST STARTING EARLY TUE EVENING AND
PERSISTING NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS INTO THU MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ISOALTED WARNING LEVEL WINDS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AROUND MONTECITO HILLS.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE I-5 CORRIDOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND
AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED
AT TIMES. GUSTY W WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MAINLY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS TUE THRU WED...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER ON TUE BUT REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR WED...HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...THEN WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MOST
AREAS ON THU AS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THRU THE DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...A BRIEF AND MOSTLY WEAK SANTA ANA WIND
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND
SUB-ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL JUMP UP INTO THE 80S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME ISOLATED READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.
BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER TEMPS WILL COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY AS ANOTHER
TROF HITS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING
COAST/VALLEYS SAT AND ANOTHER 4-8 DEGREES COOLING ON EASTER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS DEVELOPING. BEYOND
THAT, GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP
TROF OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS THE ONLY ONE ADVERTISING ANY PRECIP FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/0600Z.

AT 2250Z THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 20 DEGREES C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TRANSITION TIMES BETWEEN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC FLIGHT CATS WILL NOT DECREASE TO A LOWER CATEGORY. THERE IS A
40 PERCENT CHC THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KBUR AND KVNY.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 18Z CLEARING.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC THAT THE CIGS/VIS WILL STAY AT 400/4.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH 40 PERCENT CHC OF NO CIGS AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM

GALE WARNING GOING INTO EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN MOST OUTER WATERS AND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM
POINT SAL NORTHWARD OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN
PZZ676 TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE COASTAL WATERS IS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ON TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING
TROUGH EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY. FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE
GENERATED IN THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS OUTER WATERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAKING FOR STEEP WAVES AND
CHOP AT TIMES. INNER WATERS STILL HAVE SOME LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL
COMPONENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WILL START TO SEE BUILDING
NORTHWEST SWELL MIXING IN AND DOMINATING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS BELOW 1NM AT TIMES MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE
BUILDING TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL DECREASE WITH THE EXITING LONG PERIOD SWELL LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD AT THE
BEACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RIPS AND
LONG-SHORE CURRENTS WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES BY THIS TIME PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THU.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...BOLDT/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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