842
FXUS66 KLOX 051015
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
315 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...05/226 AM.

High pressure over the region will continue the warming trend
through today, most pronounced away from the coast. The marine
layer will continue to bring some night through morning low clouds
to the coastal and valley areas. well above normal temperatures
will continue across the interior valleys for much of this week.
Closer to the coast, high temperatures will be moderated by the
marine layer and moderate to strong onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...05/256 AM.

Today will be the warmest day of the next 7. Offshore trends will
lead to a weaker seabreeze, hgts will will approach 590 dam and
subsidence aloft will all combine to bring warmer conditions to
the area. Most areas will warm with the exception of the Central
Coast where an earlier sea breeze will knock off 2 or 3 degrees
from ydy`s readings. The marine layer will greatly temper the
coastal warming which will only be a degree or two. Further away
from the coast the vlys will warm 3 to 6 degrees where max temps
will end up in the 80s and lower 90s. The mtns and far interior
(which will be unaffected by the sea breeze) will see the
greatest warming of 5 to 10 degrees. This warming will bring max
temps up into the triple figures and will end up 15 to 20 degrees
above normal.

Dangerous heat will occur in the far interior both today and
Thursday. Heat Advisories continue for the I-14/Acton area of the
LA mountains, the Cuyama Valley, the interior San Luis Obispo
County including the Paso Robles area. An Excessive Heat Warning
also continues for the Antelope Valley. The heat can have
significant impacts on anyone, but sensitive groups like the very
young or old and those with prolonged exposure outside are
particularly vulnerable to heat impacts. If possible, take steps
to limit exposure from the heat by taking breaks inside with air
conditioning or by finding shade and also drinking plenty of
water.

The ridge weakens a little on Thursday but not enough to cool the
interior where the heat advisories and warnings will continue. The
coasts and vlys will cool as a ~2mb onshore trend will bring a
stronger and earlier sea breeze. Just enough mid level moisture
will arrive from the south to warrant around a 15 percent chance
of showers or thunderstorms over the higher mountains in Los
Angeles, Ventura, and perhaps Santa Barbara County.

The ridge will weaken further on Friday and the onshore
gradients will continue to increase. In fact the onshore push to
the east may hit 10 mb. This will keep the morning low clouds
stuck to the west facing beaches. There may be advisory level wind
gusts across the western Antelope Vly foothills as well. Max
temps will cool 3 to 6 degrees across the board. This will cool
the interior to about 8 degrees above normal, while the coasts and
vlys will return to normal day time highs.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...05/315 AM.

The ensembles are all in decent agreement for the weekend forecast
and there is good confidence that a June Gloom pattern will occur.
A saggy baggy trof will be overhead and an east pac sfc high will
bring strong onshore flow to the area. Look for the night through
morning low cloud pattern to extend all the way to the coastal
slopes with slower than normal clear and no clearing at many west
facing beaches. There will be gusty winds each afternoon across
the interior and esp the western Antelope Vly. Temps will cool
some each day more so on Sunday when hgts fall some.

The ensembles diverge for Monday and Tuesday. The EC ensembles
favor a decent cut off low over or near to the state while most
GFS members favor a weaker and morn westward system. For now will
lean the forecast towards the GFS soln as it makes more
climatological sense. Look for a persistence night through morning
cloud pattern with slightly below normal coastal temps and
slightly above normal temps across the mtns and far interior.

&&

.AVIATION...04/2301Z.

At 22Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 4000 feet with a temperature of 26 Celsius.

High confidence in timing of cloud arrival and coverage of low
clouds tonight expected to be later and less than yesterday.
Ceilings and visibility likely to be lower as well. Clearing on
Wednesday will likely be poorer or later for coastal airports and
similar or better for valley sites.

KLAX...Clouds will return as early as as 02Z and as late as 06Z.
Ceilings should be OVC008-012. There is a 30 percent chance of
BKN004-006 09-15Z. Clearing on Wednesday will be as early as 17Z
and as late as 20Z. High confidence in any east winds staying
well below 08 knots.

KBUR...There is a 50% chance of ceilings forming again tonight,
as early as 09Z and as late as 13Z. If ceilings form, expect
1-3SM BKN003-006 common.

&&

.MARINE...04/830 PM.

Gusty northwest winds will remain over the offshore waters off the
Central Coast, but will be less expansive. There is a 70 percent
chance of Gale Force winds this evening beyond 30 miles from the
coast including buoy 46028. Otherwise, winds below Small Craft
levels will impact the remainder of the waters. These winds will
also generate choppy seas over much of the coastal waters.

SCA winds are likely through Thursday over the outer waters off
the Central Coast. Otherwise, high confidence winds will stay
under SCA, although seas near 10 feet are possible beyond around
20 NM from shore. Southeast winds will be prevalent each morning
south of Point Conception, which locally could exceed 15 knots
near islands and channels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones 38-343-344-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect from 10 AM this
      morning to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...Kittell/Smith
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox