803
FXUS64 KLUB 112348
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Not much of a change was made to the short term forecast package
this afternoon. Current water vapor imagery shows the center of the
upper level low lingering across the far southeastern TX Panhandle/
western OK border this afternoon, where it is expected to track
eastward and clear the region by this evening. Low clouds have
started to diminish early this afternoon and with enough diurnal
heating, we could see an isolated thunderstorm develop across
portions of the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains where the
best instability and residual moisture resides with CAPE profiles
around 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm chances will fade through the
evening as we lose daytime heating, with a cloudy and dry overnight
expected with lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

Warm, dry, and quiet about sums up the mid-week forecast as the
upper level high creeps in from the west and sets up over the West
Texas region. After a cloudy start to the morning, clear skies will
prevail through the afternoon hours. These clear skies in addition
to increased thickness values will work to boost high temperatures
back to near normal in the upper 80s and mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the most part the long term portion of the forecast will
resemble a typical midsummer type of pattern with upper level
ridging overhead and low level flow generally east of south that
will keep low level moisture in place across the forecast area. The
exception to that will come Friday and Saturday as a mid/upper
trough will lift northeastward from the Four Corners to the central
Plains.

Mid/upper level high pressure that builds northward over the desert
southwest on Wednesday will expand eastward on Thursday leading to
higher temperatures with mid to upper 90s expected for highs while
also likely keeping shower/thunder development at bay. The
aforementioned upper trough then begins to eject on Friday.
Convective initiation that day is likely to be to our west on the
higher terrain of northern and central New Mexico with a decent
chance of the southern end of this activity staying together long
enough and on an eastward enough track to move across the
northwestern corner quarter to third of the forecast area that
night. The upper trough is then expected to be moving across the
Texas Panhandle come peak heating Saturday afternoon. This trough,
its slightly cooler mid level temperatures, and the potential for a
weak dryline to move into the western counties could result in
shower and thunderstorm development as far south as the northern
South Plains late day into early evening with better chances and
coverage currently expected to be farther north into the Panhandle.
Will continue carrying a 20-30 percent mention at this time.

At this point upper level ridging moves back overhead and is likely
to stay for the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of
hot (but not extreme) daytime temperatures and a relatively humid
air mass could lead to some air mass/pulse showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoons, but the setup does not favor PoPs higher than
about 10 percent throughout this portion of the forecast period and
will keep a "dry" forecast going for the Sunday through Tuesday
period at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

MVFR conditions are expected to return again not long after
midnight with an increase in low clouds. There is a potential for
some patchy fog to develop with IFR conditions, but confidence
remains low on exact timing and location of this development. The
chances are highest at PVW/LBB, so a TEMPO group was used for a
best guess time window. As the low clouds and patchy fog develop
tonight, amendments will be made where necessary. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should return by mid morning tomorrow at all three TAF
sites. Light east winds will turn to the south overnight and
remain southerly through tomorrow.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11