Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
461 FXUS64 KLZK 092338 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Unpleasant conditions remain in place at the sfc across much of the state ahead of an approaching cold front. Perspectives remain vastly different this afternoon as clouds and rain have held temperatures in the 60s/70s F across northern AR while central and souther AR have seen temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s F with Td values in the 70s F. (But we`re not bitter...) These conditions will help influence how things unfold into the evening hours as the cold front is expected to sag south while a H500 shortwave moves across the area in the NW flow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop from north-central to central AR by 20z-22z and begin to move S/SE. Afternoon mesoanalysis indicates between 2000-4000 J/kg of available SBCAPE along with 30-40 kts of shear are available. This should be more than adequate in allowing at least a few storms to become severe. Main corridor of large hail/damaging wind threat remains within the SPC slight risk area through a few hours after sunset. By Monday morning the cold front should have progressed south of the area with precip coming to an end as sfc ridging builds in. Other than dry conditions, this should help things feel more pleasant outside for a day or two. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Calm and dry conditions are expected through the period under high pressure. Winds are expected to remain mostly light and variable through much of the period. Some high clouds will be likely early in the period before mostly clear skies prevail late in the week. Temperatures are expected to be average to slightly above average through the period. High temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to mid 90s with overnight temperatures dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s. The coolest temperatures will be early in the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Convection will slowly weaken and drift south through the night with the majority of the activity ending by morning. Stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and maybe some small hail. Cold front will continue to move south this evening and tonight with winds shift some the SE to N/NE in its wake. Some reduced vsby/cigs are possible tonight through daybreak Monday before conditions improve to VFR through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 59 83 58 82 / 50 0 0 0 Camden AR 66 84 62 85 / 10 20 0 0 Harrison AR 55 80 56 81 / 20 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 64 84 61 85 / 30 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 65 85 63 85 / 40 10 0 0 Monticello AR 67 85 63 85 / 30 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 62 83 60 85 / 40 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 55 80 56 81 / 20 0 0 0 Newport AR 60 83 59 82 / 50 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 65 84 62 84 / 20 10 0 0 Russellville AR 62 85 61 85 / 40 0 0 0 Searcy AR 61 84 59 82 / 50 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 65 83 63 82 / 30 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...56