Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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418 FXUS64 KLZK 090912 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 412 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Sctd strong/few svr storms affected n-central and northeast AR durg the overnight hrs. Early this mrng, most of the convection was confined to southern MO into far northeast AR. Meanwhile, warm and humid conds were noted elsewhere, with predawn temperatures in the 70s. The aforementioned convection was occurring along the periphery of an upper lvl ridge that was centered along the Gulf Coastal region. Showers/storms wl stay concentrated acrs northern AR this mrng. A few storms could produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail, along with locally heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, dry conds are expected for the rest of the mrng, but convective chcs wl incrs this aftn as a large scale upper trof apchs fm the Plains. This scenario wl allow the upper rdg to weaken, allowing a new CDFNT to drop into AR. CAMS have been in good agreement with this trend, with the CDFNT expected to push south of AR by Monday. Some of the stronger storms later today into tngt wl have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. However, model output conts to indc that the bulk of the convection wl be elevated and primarily north of the bndry. Rain-cooled air and clouds wl hold daytime highs mainly in the 70s to near 80 in the north. Elsewhere, the mercury wl climb into the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Resulting aftn heat indices wl reach well into the 90s, with parts south AR briefly seeing values from 100 to 103 degrees. Highs on Mon wl actually be a few degrees below normal, ranging fm the upper 70s to the mid 80s. With the aforementioned CDFNT pushing south of AR on Mon, opted to keep the fcst dry. However, but some data suggest we could see some precip linger in the south durg the mrng hrs. Otherwise, north and northeast winds wl usher drier air into the region. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Broad sfc high pressure wl be in place acrs the OH River Valley and greater Appalachia. Seasonal temps and lower humidity levels wl be seen around the FA Tues, and into Wed, w/ high temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s at most locations. By Wed, before broad sfc high pressure should begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming over the Srn Plains. A subtle H500 shortwave/vorticity max is progged to maneuver thru weak upper background flow, ejecting acrs the ARKLATEX region Wed aftn. For now, low chc PoPs remain acrs Wrn to S/Wrn AR on Wed aftn. Thru the remainder of the work week, shortwave H500 ridging is set to build acrs the Central US and antecedent longwave troughing recedes and drifts N/Ewrd. Intermittent low-chc diurnal PoPs wl be seen by most, but otherwise, relatively dry condns are expected thru the remainder of next week, w/ Srly flow driving incrsg temps and humidity levels acrs the FA. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Sctd convection wl cont to affect mainly N AR into the early mrng hrs. MVFR/IFR conds where the heavier activity occurs, along with gusty winds. Additional convection is expected to form Sun aftn over northern areas ahead of a slow moving CDFNT. This activity wl eventually work into central AR later in the PD. Otherwise, VFR conds wl cont. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 81 60 83 59 / 50 50 0 0 Camden AR 95 67 84 62 / 10 10 10 0 Harrison AR 76 56 80 57 / 70 40 0 0 Hot Springs AR 94 65 84 63 / 20 30 10 0 Little Rock AR 92 66 84 65 / 30 40 0 0 Monticello AR 94 68 84 65 / 20 20 10 0 Mount Ida AR 92 65 83 62 / 20 30 10 0 Mountain Home AR 75 57 80 57 / 70 30 0 0 Newport AR 82 62 83 61 / 50 40 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 66 83 63 / 20 30 10 0 Russellville AR 91 65 85 63 / 40 40 10 0 Searcy AR 87 62 83 61 / 40 40 0 0 Stuttgart AR 91 66 83 64 / 30 40 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...44