Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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884 FXUS64 KMAF 070544 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The short term synoptic pattern is generally dictated by the dominant upper ridge overhead, set to slowly meander eastward through Texas tomorrow. The main headlines under this pattern will be the continued heat, with high temperatures exceeding the triple digits both today and tomorrow afternoon region-wide except the higher elevations and Heat Advisories are in effect today for most zones along and west of the Pecos River. The low-level thermal ridge remains at a similar location/intensity for tomorrow, albeit maybe a degree C cooler, and as such, more Heat Advisories are likely for tomorrow as well. Aside from the heat, the other focus in the short term is on largely diurnally and orographically driven convection across the higher terrain today and tomorrow. We are already seeing this occur with showers and thunderstorms across the Davis Mountains and adjacent foothills southward through the Big Bend though fairly low CAPE and very little wind shear should keep storms sub-severe. A weak MCS is likely to develop off this afternoon`s convection across the TX Panhandle and slowly sag south in the late evening. Most CAMs kill of this before reaching our area but a few still show the system edging into the northern Permian Basin before killing it off. A similar situation is on tap for tomorrow afternoon where largely sub- severe storms are possible in the afternoon for the western higher terrain. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The upper ridge that has been in control for the tail-end of this week continues to slide towards the Gulf Coast on Saturday, giving way to a trough set to move in and around its periphery. Still, Saturday`s forecast maintains a repeat of today and Friday`s weather with continued hot afternoons in the triple digits for most and afternoon sub-severe thunderstorm chances in the southwestern higher terrain. The real pattern change looks to arrive on Sunday/Monday when a cold front pushes into the area. There still remains some uncertainty in the timing of the arrival of the front but there is general agreement in it to push in late Sunday, leading to yet another hot day. The front could bring some added precipitation chances to the north-central Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Between the weak cold front moving through and the clouds/precipitation present into Monday, some relief from the heat arrives with highs *only* in the mid 90s for most. Unfortunately, this relief is short-lived and we snap right back to a pattern akin of this week with hot and dry afternoons and diurnal showers/storms in the mountains. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms is slowly progressing southward across the South Plains, and may impact HOB within the first few hours of the forecast period. However, confidence is low, thus will monitor and amend if needed, though an easterly wind shift may be possible due to the associated outflow boundary. Elsewhere, winds will remain elevated and at least intermittently gusty out of the southeast, with VFR conditions prevailing areawide. Any thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening should remain west of area terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 73 104 74 101 / 20 10 10 20 Dryden 75 101 75 102 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 75 100 75 104 / 0 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 71 94 71 92 / 40 20 20 20 Hobbs 71 101 72 97 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 63 93 61 96 / 20 40 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 75 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 76 104 75 106 / 10 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...84