540
FXUS64 KMEG 300448
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1148 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Another quiet night is underway across the region. Surface high
pressure prevails with a comfortable airmass across the Mid-South.
The drier airmass will allow temps to drop into the 50s across
parts of West TN and north MS. A weak shortwave moving through the
NW flow aloft could bring a shower to places SW of Memphis but
most places will remain dry.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Mainly dry and cool conditions will persist on Thursday and much
of Friday. A low pressure system will move across the region late
Friday into Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms
expected. Unsettled weather will persist Sunday through the middle
of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A comfortably warm and dry day across the Mid-South at this hour.
The latest surface analysis places a quasi-stationary front just
south of the Tennessee and Mississippi stateline. The latest
visible satellite imagery shows some agitated cumulus along this
boundary, where a few showers or thunderstorms may form over the
next hour or so. North of the boundary, dewpoint temperatures have
mixed down into the mid to upper 50s. A couple of locations have
over north Mississippi are reporting relative humidity at or below
30 percent.

The aforementioned front will push a bit further south tonight,
aided by weak northwest flow aloft. Thursday will be a bit cooler
than today as we see a bit more high cloud cover tomorrow.
Nonetheless, a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible along
the frontal boundary during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Expect
highs in the lower 80s areawide.

The ridge of high pressure to our west will deamplify on Thursday
and allow a series of weak perturbations to translate through the
region over the next 5 days or so. One notable shortwave will
deepen and shift into the Mid-South late Friday. Return flow ahead
of the wave will be rather weak, but there will be some
instability that develops across our far southwestern counties
during the day. A low end wind and hail appears possible Friday
afternoon into early Saturday.

Unsettled weather will persist Sunday into at least the middle
part of next week as a series of weak perturbations translate
through zonal flow. Synoptic models are not in good agreement in
the long term, so leaned heavily on the NBM to produce mainly 30
to 50 PoPs each day and below normal temperatures.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The main focus for the next 30 hours will be the possibility of
showers to develop and impact MEM towards the end of the period.
Given low confidence in showers reaching the terminal, opted to
leave mention of precip out of TAF. Otherwise, VFR CIGs and winds
veering east will prevail.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS