288
FXUS64 KMEG 140437
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Current forecast remains on track.

Thunderstorms continued to develop over the MS River delta of
eastern AR at midevening. These storms were likely becoming
rooted in an elevated layer as they lifted north from Arklamiss.

HRRR sounding for Clarksdale, MS at 03Z depicted a shallow
nocturnal inversion, with nearly 1000 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE
above 800mb. Below this layer, down to the inversion, lapse rates
are depicted as moist adiabatic. For updrafts surviving this
marginally stable low layer, relatively steep midlevel lapse
rates will support marginally severe hail. Increasing deep layer
bulk shear is expected under the right entrance region of a 250mb
speed max. This may aid storm organization and persistence
potential into the early overnight hours.

PWB

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday as an upper level
disturbance and cold front slowly progress across the region. A
few strong storms are possible late tonight and again in the
afternoon hours on Tuesday. Dry conditions will return on
Wednesday as we are in between weather systems. Showers and
thunderstorms will return Thursday and persist through early
Saturday. A mostly dry weekend with near normal temperatures is
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A cool and cloudy afternoon across the Mid-South. Heavy cloud
cover has persisted this afternoon beneath southwest flow aloft.
The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals just a few light showers,
mainly over portions of northwest Tennessee. The latest GOES east
Water Vapor Imagery shows a robust MCS across the Florida
Panhandle, with another MCS over southeast Texas. A compact upper
low was also analyzed near the Missouri and Kansas border.

Mainly dry conditions will persist through early evening across
the entire Mid-South. Thereafter, a shortwave will eject from the
base of upper low and nearly phase with a southern stream wave
coming out of the ArkLaTex. As it does, two areas of scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening. A few of the
storms could be strong to severe, as up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
up to 50 knots of deep layer shear will be on hand. The main
threats with any strong storms will be hail and gusty winds, as
mid level lapse rates will approach 7.5 C/km and DCAPE values
will be nearing 800 J/kg. The threat of strong storms should end
as storms approach the Tennessee River before sunrise Tuesday
morning.

The upper low and associated surface low will push slowly through
the Mid-South late tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening.
Instability will be maximized ahead of the front or for areas east
of the Mississippi River, where up to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be
available. Strong storms could form along the cold front by early
afternoon and produce hail and gusty winds. Storms will likely
push east of the Tennessee River before midnight.

Dry conditions will return on Wednesday and persist into much of
Thursday as shortwave ridging builds in overhead. The weather will
become unsettled once again late Thursday, as several shortwaves
translate through southwest flow aloft. A marginal threat of
strong storms will likely exist during this period as 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE will be available and up to 30 knots of shear.

Mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend as we remain under
a weak ridge. Did carry a 20 to 30 PoP each day, as some diurnal
showers and thunderstorms may bubble up. A weak and mostly dry cold
front looks to move through the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday into Monday as a large trough digs across the Ohio Valley.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Ceilings and TS remain the main challenges in the 06Z TAF set.
Latest guidance including high resolution ensemble guidance has
trended with lower probabilities of IFR ceilings or lower
overnight into Tuesday morning. Thus, ceilings were improved to
reflect higher ceilings overnight. Little if any change was needed
in the timing of TS as a shortwave trough moves through the region
overnight. PROB30`s were included Tuesday afternoon for the
potential of additional development of TS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CJC