059
FXUS64 KMEG 292320
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
620 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Mainly dry and cool conditions will persist on Thursday and much
of Friday. A low pressure system will move across the region late
Friday into Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms
expected. Unsettled weather will persist Sunday through the middle
of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A comfortably warm and dry day across the Mid-South at this hour.
The latest surface analysis places a quasi-stationary front just
south of the Tennessee and Mississippi stateline. The latest
visible satellite imagery shows some agitated cumulus along this
boundary, where a few showers or thunderstorms may form over the
next hour or so. North of the boundary, dewpoint temperatures have
mixed down into the mid to upper 50s. A couple of locations have
over north Mississippi are reporting relative humidity at or below
30 percent.

The aforementioned front will push a bit further south tonight,
aided by weak northwest flow aloft. Thursday will be a bit cooler
than today as we see a bit more high cloud cover tomorrow.
Nonetheless, a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible along
the frontal boundary during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Expect
highs in the lower 80s areawide.

The ridge of high pressure to our west will deamplify on Thursday
and allow a series of weak perturbations to translate through the
region over the next 5 days or so. One notable shortwave will
deepen and shift into the Mid-South late Friday. Return flow ahead
of the wave will be rather weak, but there will be some
instability that develops across our far southwestern counties
during the day. A low end wind and hail appears possible Friday
afternoon into early Saturday.

Unsettled weather will persist Sunday into at least the middle
part of next week as a series of weak perturbations translate
through zonal flow. Synoptic models are not in good agreement in
the long term, so leaned heavily on the NBM to produce mainly 30
to 50 PoPs each day and below normal temperatures.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Little change from previous forecast. VFR CIGs and winds veering
to the south will be the main focus for the next 30 hours. Some
CAMs depict showers pushing near TUP by 14Z, but confidence for
this is low so opted to leave out of TAF for now.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS