750
FXUS62 KMFL 050504
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
104 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Isolated-Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through the early evening with the main focus being SWFL.
Otherwise generally dry overnight apart from a few showers over
the waters, with low temperatures typical of a warm easterly
regime.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

South Florida will remain in the periphery of a surface high over
the western Atlantic through tonight, allowing for continued
easterly flow and moisture advection across our region. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop over
interior and southwest Florida this afternoon as the sea breezes
develop and collide. The limiting factor for any convection will
be subtle ridging and dry air in the mid-levels helping to
suppress development over the area.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Wednesday, with
the exception of the surface high`s influence which will continue
to drift eastward, allowing for winds to veer from the east-
southeast. This will allow for a slight uptick in moisture
advection across the region, and thus we could expect more total
storm coverage and areal rainfall for the middle of the week.
Again, the interior and southwest regions will likely experience
the greatest convective coverage. Impacts will be limited to
lightning and locally strong wind gusts.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical
easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east
coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida.
Temperatures could be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday once winds
shift out of the east-southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.Late this Week...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will continue to
move further east into the Atlantic waters allowing for a trough
of low pressure over the Central United States to move eastward
into the Eastern United States. This will allow for the wind flow
over South Florida to become more south/Southwest allowing for the
west coast sea breeze to push across the region with the east
coast sea breeze remaining over the east coast metro areas. At the
same time, a short wave will be moving southeast from the Gulf of
Mexico through the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. This weather
pattern will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop each
afternoon with the highest coverage on Thursday. The best areas
that will see the showers and thunderstorms will be over the
interior and east coast metro areas.

Highs will also be getting up into the mid to upper 90s each
afternoon over most of South Florida except for the west coast
metro areas where they will be in the lower to mid 90s. However,
the heat indices will be getting up into the mid to upper 100s
over most areas, except lower to mid 100s west coast metro areas
due to the increase in humidity.

.This Weekend...
The trough of low pressure will remain over the Eastern United
States which will keep south florida in a southwest steering flow.
However, there will be some drier air over the region this weekend
which will reduce the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The
best areas for the showers and storms will be over the interior
and east coast metro areas each afternoon.

Highs will still remain in the mid to upper 90s over most areas
each afternoon except for the west coast metro areas where they
will be in the lower to mid 90s. The northern interior areas could
even get close to 100 degrees. Heat indices will also remain in
the mid to upper 100s over most areas, except for the west coast
metro areas where they will be in the lower to mid 100s. If these
heat indices continue in later forecast, then heat advisories may
be needed for this weekend.

Lows will be mainly in the 70s over the region, except upper 70s
to near 80 over the west coast metro areas each night this
weekend.

.Early Next Week...
Some long range models are showing a tropical wave to move
westward through the Caribbean Sea with the northern portion of
the wave possibly moving through South Florida. While others are
keeping the northern portion of the wave south of the area.
Therefore, at this time will keep POPs at the scattered range for
early next week over South Florida until the long range models
come into agreement for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR continues at all terminals through around 15Z, then VCSH could
result in brief Sub-VFR cigs/vis for the Atlantic sites. APF has
better chances at thunderstorm activity after 18Z. ESE Winds
increase to around 10kt this afternoon, then light and variable
later in the evening. Only exception will be APF where a westerly
flow develops with afternoon Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Generally benign boating conditions should prevail through the
period. Easterly flow 10-15 kts will persist through tonight,
becoming more easterly-southeasterly tomorrow. Seas will remain in
the 2-3 ft range through the week. Nevertheless, scattered showers
and storms each afternoon could result in localized higher seas and
winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue today for all Atlantic
beaches as easterly winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  92  79  95 /  20  50  40  40
West Kendall     75  93  77  96 /  20  60  40  40
Opa-Locka        78  93  78  96 /  20  50  40  40
Homestead        78  90  79  94 /  20  50  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  78  94 /  20  50  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  78  96 /  20  50  40  50
Pembroke Pines   79  93  78  96 /  20  50  40  50
West Palm Beach  77  92  76  96 /  20  50  50  50
Boca Raton       79  90  78  95 /  20  40  40  50
Naples           78  90  78  91 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17