947
FXUS62 KMFL 110509
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
109 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

High temperatures today tied records at Miami, Fort Lauderdale,
West Palm Beach with highs in the mid 90s. Overnight, temperatures
will drop into the 70s but dewpoints will rise leading to a very
muggy evening. Tomorrow, high temperatures are expected to be in
the mid 90s as well and may tie or break records once again as
this early season heat spell continues. No significant changes
with this forecast update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Models show mid-level ridging centered across SoFlo gradually been
flatten as a shortwave trough and associated sfc low migrate over
the SE US. This will keep SoFlo in the warm sector of the system,
with warmer than normal low temps continuing tonight. For
Saturday, very warm temperatures and southwest to westerly surface
flow are expected, with afternoon highs again in the low to mid
90s. Heat index values will hit low 100s. Later in the afternoon
and evening, a frontal boundary will slowly begin to push across
the area, bringing along chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The best chances will be across the Lake region and Palm Beach
County (30-40%), with lower chances of 15-30% across the rest of
South Florida. Strong to even severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, as sufficient instability (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and moderate
lapse rates), moisture (1.5"+ PWAT), and shear (25-30kts of
effective bulk shear) may be in place, especially along the East
Coast. The primary hazards with any thunderstorms that may develop
would be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Late This Weekend Into Early Next Week...
High pressure will move back northward from the Florida Straits
to the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into early next week.
This will allow for the wind flow to become more east southeast
over South Florida allow for the east coast sea breeze to develop
and push westward across the region while the west coast sea
breeze remains over the western areas. This will allow for some
showers and a few thunderstorms to develop each afternoon and
evening over the region especially where the sea breezes develop.

The heat will continue over South Florida each day with highs in
the mid to upper 90s except lower to mid 90s over the east coast
metro areas. Heat indices will be around 100 except for the east
coast metro areas where they will be in the mid to upper 90s.

Middle of Next Week...
High will move back southward into the Florida Straits as a
through of low pressure moves eastward across the Southeastern
United States. This will allow for a southwest steering flow over
South Florida pushing the west coast sea breeze eastward across
the region while keeping the east coast sea breeze over the east
coast metro areas. Isolated to low end chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue each afternoon and evening with the
best coverage over the NE areas of South Florida.

The heat will also continue during this time with highest in the
mid to upper 90s over most areas, except around 90 west coast
metro areas each day. There could also be a few isolated areas
over the eastern interior areas where it could get up to around
100 degrees. Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 100s over
the interior areas with mid 100s over the east coast metro areas
and around 100 over the west coast metro areas.

Lows each night will remain the mid 70s over most areas, except
upper 70s to near 80 degrees over the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light westerly winds. W/SW
winds will increase to around 10 kts after 15Z with gusts of 15-20
kts through about 00Z. SCT showers and thunderstorms are possible
today, but only PBI has VCTS this afternoon as of this issuance.
Some locally erratic winds are possible around storms and sub-VFR
ceilings/visibilities are possible as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Moderate to fresh SSW winds will gradually shift W by Saturday as
a cold frontal approaches the area. The Atlantic waters will
likely reach small craft exercise caution criteria late this
evening into tonight. There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the
region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach
coastline for the rest of today. As winds trend more westerly/offshore
over the weekend, the risk will decrease over the Atlantic
coastline.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A dry air mass will remain in place over the next few days, with
minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent over the
interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the
generally dry fuels could lead to enhanced fire weather
conditions, but winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            96  75  92  78 /  20  10  10   0
West Kendall     97  72  94  77 /  10  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        97  74  93  78 /  30  10  10   0
Homestead        96  74  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  95  75  89  79 /  30  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  95  75  89  78 /  40  20  10  10
Pembroke Pines   98  75  93  78 /  30  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  94  73  89  77 /  40  20  10  10
Boca Raton       96  74  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
Naples           90  73  90  74 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...CMF