704
FXUS66 KMFR 100533
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1033 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...An update is not necessary. A few sprinkles may
linger over the higher terrain this evening, on the back side of
an upper level trough. A week of relatively low impact seasonable
weather is expected, with gusty coastal breezes and areas of night
and morning coastal low clouds. Cooling is expected across the
area Friday into the weekend, with a marine push of persistent
low clouds. This is likely to include a frontal passage around
Saturday into Saturday night that may generate a chance of light
coastal and Douglas County showers. Please see the previous
discussion below for further details.

&&

.AVIATION...10/06Z TAFs...Marine stratus is the main concern through
the TAF period as IFR ceilings have already built into the coast
tonight. The boundary layer is anticipated to compress leading to
LIFR ceilings tonight over North Bend(KOTH) and most of the
coast. These lower ceilings are anticipated to clear up by the
late morning with clear skies expected by the afternoon and
evening hours.

Marine stratus is anticipated to build into the coast again on
Monday night with IFR ceilings more likely.

-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Sunday, June 9, 2024...A thermal trough
will strengthen along the northern California coast resulting in
gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas, mainly south of
Port Orford through Monday. Conditions will likely remain at least
hazardous to small craft through Wednesday morning, especially
south of Cape Blanco. Then, the thermal trough will strengthen
further bringing stronger north winds and steep seas to all waters
Wednesday afternoon and evening with possible gales and very
steep seas south of Cape Blanco.
-Spilde/Hermansen


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Rest of today through Tuesday Night...Showers and
thunderstorms continue east of the Cascades today as an upper
level disturbance passes over the region. As this trough pushes
farther east, the focus of activity will shift to the east as well.
We do expect the greatest coverage of showers/thunderstorms to be
somewhat earlier today compared to previous days, peaking in the
early afternoon vs late afternoon/evening as in previous days. We
could see some strong storms today, but the chance for severe is
fairly low (5 to 10%). While the atmosphere is fairly similar to
previous days with similar CAPE and LI values, bulk shear is
weaker today, around 20 to 30 kts, and the forcing mechanism is
moving through early enough in the day to limit the peak heating
contribution. Regardless, with any thunderstorms that develop
today, expect strong gusty winds as well as the potential for
hail.

One the trough exits to the east and convective activity tapers
off this evening, ridging will then build into the area, with the
area drying out and temperatures warming again slightly, to about
10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, and the
thermal trough will reintensify along the coast. The thermal
trough will then push inland by Monday evening, leading to our
warmest day inland. The ridge will then flatten a bit, leading to
mostly zonal flow overhead and slightly cooler temperatures
Tuesday into Tuesday evening, with dry conditions continuing into
the extended period. -BPN

LONG TERM...Wednesday 6/12 through Sunday 6/16...The extended
forecast begins with either weak ridging at the mid levels of the
atmosphere. While weak disturbances will pass largely to the north
of the area over the ridge, we can expect dry weather to continue
across southern Oregon and northern California through the extended
period. However, this pattern will allow humidities to dry out
considerably Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile, temperatures will
be much slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
east of the Cascades and lower 80s to upper 70s east of the
Cascades. The coast will be cooler with temperatures in the 60s.

Then, for the weekend, the general flow pattern will turn to become
more unsettled as a low pressure system approaches the Pacific
Northwest. The general front ahead of the low will be relatively
weak and precipitation is not expected as far south as southern
Oregon. However, some precipitation in showers will be possible
within the low itself. Ensembles do show some timing differences,
but the general thought is that temperatures will be even cooler
over the weekend, winds will be breezy, and that a slight showers
will be possible largely north of the Douglas/Lane County Border.
However, this could change as the details of this system become more
clear. Have gone with the National Blend of Models for this forecast
package. -Schaaf

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5
     AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$