Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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447 FXUS66 KMFR 301811 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1111 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track for today. An upper ridge will develop through the day, bringing a 5-10 degree increase in afternoon highs across the area. Friday`s highs will also increase before the ridge moves eastward, allowing for a cooler weekend with little activity expected. There will be very slight (~5%) thunderstorm chances over Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties on Friday night, then over southern Lake County on Saturday afternoon. Those chances clearly aren`t impressive, but when everything else is 0%, they`re worth noting. Please see the previous discussion for additional details about the short- and long-term forecast. -TAD AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail over the region and are expected to persist through the day. Northerly winds will pick up again this morning and afternoon, and gusts could reach 20-25 kts. Some low clouds could form in the valleys of Coos and western Douglas County, but are not expected to impact the North Bend or Roseburg terminals. -Miles MARINE...Updated 830 AM Thursday, May 30, 2024...A thermal trough is bringing gusty north winds, with wind-built chaotic seas expected in all waters today. The thermal trough will strengthen further through the day, peaking this evening and persisting through at least Friday evening; resulting in gale force winds for most areas south of Cape Blanco and for isolated instances across the waters between Bandon and Cape Blanco. Meanwhile small craft conditions will expand north over the rest of the waters that will last into at least Friday evening. The thermal trough will weaken overnight Friday into Saturday and north winds will diminish as an upper trough approaches. Calmer seas are expected by the weekend and into early next week after the wind waves have diminished. -Schaaf/Miles PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024/ DISCUSSION...Ridging will then remain in control through Friday, with dry conditions and a warming trend that will peak with well above normal highs Friday afternoon. The thermal trough will return during this time, resulting in strong north to northeast winds in the coast range and a Chetco Effect, which will lead to warmer temperatures around Brookings than elsewhere on the coast. A weak trough and front then arrive late Friday into early Saturday, and although very little, if any, measurable rain is expected outside of the immediate coast, afternoon temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler Saturday than on Friday. A second, much deeper trough will arrive late Sunday into Monday, and this will reinforce the cooling trend, bringing temperatures down below normal for Monday. Temperatures will only be half the story, however, as the system is forecast to produce measurable rain for almost all areas along and west of the Cascades, with a decent chance for some areas to the east as well. Model moisture values for this event are high, and would be significant even during the winter, but will pass through the area quickly. This means that the band of moderate to heavy precipitation will not last long, entering the coast late Sunday evening and exiting/dissipating Monday morning. Some post-frontal showers will continue into Monday afternoon, but all precipitation should come to an end by Monday evening. For the rest of the week, there is quite a spread amongst the model solutions, mainly resulting from differences in how strong the next ridge will be, and the timing of when it builds in overhead. In other words, we know that the remainder of the week will trend dry and much warmer, likely well above normal for early June, but the magnitude and timing of that heat remains could be delayed by a day or so from the current forecast. -BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370-376. && $$