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000
FXUS66 KMFR 291605
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES ARE NECESSARY THIS MORNING. CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES
LOOK ON TRACK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH REAL TIME DATA AND THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE SHORTER TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMBINING WITH EXISTING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS THAT MAY JOG OUT INTO THE NEARBY VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED AT 321 AM PDT THIS MORNING...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING USHERED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM TWO AREAS. FIRST...A BIG SWATH OF
MOISTURE IS SOURCED FROM A CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...AND
THE SECOND IS FARTHER AWAY...MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UP FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE MOISTURE
FEEDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK
AT LEAST.

RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOMORROW...RANGING FROM
0.75 INCHES EAST OF THE CASCADES TO 1 INCH WEST OF THE
CASCADES...INDICATE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AND MORESO AS
ONE HEADS WEST. OF COURSE LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORM
CORES AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START FIRES. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT GENERALLY EAST OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY...AND REALLY
MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. A RED FLAG WARNING COVERS THIS
THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...AND THUS THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MOISTURE VALUES DO CREEP UP SOME ON
WEDNESDAY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE STORMS.

THURSDAY MAY FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...AND
STORM MOTION WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD
COVER A BROADER SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/12Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALL ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY. THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BURN
BACK TO THE COASTLINE AROUND NOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
STORMS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
TERMINALS...WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR A BIT LESS INLAND EXTENT AS THIS
MORNING...REACHING INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME
SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORESO ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE
IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH.
/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES
AND GREAT BASIN AND WILL REMAIN PARKED THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. MOISTURE HAS YET TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER US, BUT IT WILL BECOME DEEPER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE RATHER VOLATILE CONDITIONS
AND GREATLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TWO OF THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND HERE
(INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE) WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS FROM THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES EASTWARD. ALL
THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE SREF AND SPC LIGHTNING AND
THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE, HIT THESE AREAS ALL WEEK. A THIRD
INGREDIENT (TRIGGER) USUALLY RESULTS IN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND CAN OFTEN GET STORMS OVER ONTO THE WEST SIDE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL THUS BE TO IDENTIFY AND THEN TIME ANY
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUPY SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS, ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A LOT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO THESE WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT, ESPECIALLY AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST SIDE.

A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING.
A VERY WEAK ONE IS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE CELLS AREN`T DOING ANYTHING
AT THE MOMENT, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY STEEP, SO IT
WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH TO GET THEM GOING. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A
DIFFUSE AREA OF VORTICITY DRIFTING THROUGH TODAY. I DON`T THINK
THIS WILL BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER, AND THERE IS A BIT OF CAP EXPECTED
WEST OF THE CASCADES. BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE.

THERE IS A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST
THIS MORNING, WHICH ALREADY HAS ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH IT
(INCLUDING ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE). I`M NOT SURE THIS WAVE IS BEING
HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE MODELS, BUT PURE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS IT
HERE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE WHY THE GFS HOLDS ONTO STORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE. I DID EXPAND THE POPS OVER THERE
TONIGHT FOR THAT REASON.

I CAN`T REALLY IDENTIFY ANY PARTICULAR TRIGGER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
WE OUGHT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
(CURRENTLY AROUND 25N 120W) THAT MAY ARRIVE HERE THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT NORTH TO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND BREAKS OUT A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AS A RESULT, EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE GFS
TAKES IT IN SOUTH AND EAST OF US, WHICH MEANS THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
LIKELY STILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE EAST SIDE. NOT SURE WHICH
TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.

I MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED, BUT HOT UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-622>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ621.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/TRW/NSK