Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 302134
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING THEN A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. /DW


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





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