511
FXUS66 KMFR 290418
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
918 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.DISCUSSION.../Issued 245 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024/ Overall, the
weather should be fairly repetitive this week, with weak high
pressure dominating once the current trough moves to the east.

The broad trough sitting offshore of Vancouver Island and has forced
a weakening front onshore. This has caused some weak showers, but
generally just dry cumulus, up over the terrain west of the Cascades
in the Coast ranges and Douglas County. East of the Cascades,
thunderstorms are beginning to form today in Lassen and Modoc
County. There is a 10-20% chance for further isolated
thunderstorm activity across Lake County as well as the front
moves through, but the better environment is in the eastern half
of Oregon into Idaho. Overall, these showers/thunderstorms should
cause no more than a nuisance level of impact.

Temperatures are expected to remain around the mid 70s to low 80s
for most places inland from the coast, which is near or at normal
for this time of year. The one exception would be in the Umpqua
Basin where if fog forms tonight, the forecast could be a few
degrees on the warm side.

Wednesday into Friday, a thermal trough will peak and this will
bring moderate recoveries to most places outside of Douglas, Coos,
or Curry County. The thermal trough will also cause strong north-
northwest winds in the coast range and a chetco effect, which will
lead to warmer temperatures around Brookings than elsewhere on the
coast. The strong winds at the coast should subside on the weekend.

The climate prediction center is hinting already at some higher than
normal chances for a heat wave in the extended range of the forecast
and it is worth taking a look at their outlook if you are concerned
about heat.

-Miles

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. MVFR
ceilings are currently being observed while a weak disturbance
offshore moves inland this evening resulting in increased onshore
flow with marine stratus. MVFR conditions will last into tomorrow
morning before improving to VFR in the afternoon. The south coast
should remain VFR through the TAF period.

Inland, west of the Cascades, Ceilings are expected to remain VFR
through the TAF period. Winds tomorrow afternoon will not be as
strong as they were today.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period. The showers and thunderstorms that were present east of the
Cascades earlier today are moving out of the area. The main concern
will be moderate winds with peak gusts possibly nearing 25 kts at
Klamath Falls tomorrow afternoon. -Petrucelli/Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 845 PM Tuesday, May 28, 2024...Relatively calm
conditions are expected into Wednesday morning with light to
moderate winds and low seas. A thermal trough will develop during
the day Wednesday resulting in increasing north winds that will
reach Small Craft for all southern waters, except beyond 5 nm from
shore west of Port Orford. The thermal trough will strengthen
further late Wednesday night through at least Friday evening and
this will result in Gale force winds for a good chunk of the
southern waters, except beyond 40 nm from shore west of Cape Blanco.
Meanwhile Small Craft Conditions will expand north over the rest of
the waters that will last into at least Friday evening.

The thermal trough will weaken overnight Friday into Saturday with
north winds diminishing as an upper trough approaches. Calmer seas
are expected by the weekend and into early next week. -
Petrucelli/Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to
     5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-
     376.

&&

$$