858
FXUS62 KMHX 071934
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
334 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through today and this evening,
with weak high pressure building in this weekend. Another front
will move through Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1515 Friday...Seabreeze will provide a focal point for
shower and storm development late this afternoon and evening,
but only carrying broad SChc PoP. Activity is expected to be
isolated at best thanks to a much drier column aloft (PWATs
about a half inch lower than this morning). Werly surface flow
will keep sea breeze and convective activity pinned along the
coast, ensuring the coastal plain remains dry. Shear will be
very weak and no severe threat is expected. Still very warm
today with highs nearing 90 inland, but not as oppressive as Tds
fall into the upper 50s across the coastal plain. Along the
coast, humid conditions hold on with Tds in the upper 60s to
around 70.

Any convective activity that does happen to pop up will quickly
collapse before sunset as cold front eventually pushes offshore
tonight and high pressure builds in its wake. Clear skies and
light winds out of the N after midnight, coupled with the much
drier airmass, will set the stage for an unusually mild night
for early June as temperatures fall into the low 60s across the
coastal plain. More typical overnight conditions linger along
the coast, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 1520 Friday...Flow aloft becomes purely zonal behind the
shortwave that passes overhead through the day tomorrow. Winds
start out Nerly with approaching SFC high centered to the W of
the FA, then Werly in the afternoon with local sea/sound/river
breezes dominating coastal wind patterns. Highs just a degree or
two lower than Fri, MaxTs in the upper 80s most, upper 70s-low
80s for seabreeze cooled locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass
expected this weekend as weak high pressure builds in. Another
front will push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing
threat for sct showers and storms. Low confidence forecast
Monday night through late week, with still a large spread in the
guidance.

Saturday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more
zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high
pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable
airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into
the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s to low 90s Sun.

Sunday night through Thursday...A front will move through
Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances for sct
showers and storms. Low confidence forecast Monday night
through late week, with still a large spread in the guidance.
Upper troughing will continue over the eastern US, with
potential for another frontal passage and sfc low development
Monday night through mid week. GFS continues to be the wetter
solution, keeping the front stalled across the area through mid
week. Given lack of run to run consistency and uncertainty,
will continue to trend towards the previous forecast, while
incorporating the newer NBM, increasing pops slightly but
capping at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 1315 Friday...VFR flight cats through the TAF period.
Main focus for aviation interests is isolated convective
potential this afternoon along the seabreeze. With more
W-WNWerly flow aloft, activity will migrate little from the
coast. Expecting activity to remain E of TAF sites. Have removed
thunder mention for EWN but left in for OAJ due to their
proximity to where the front will collide with the pinned
seabreeze. Coastal Plain terminals remain dry. Any activity
will quickly collapse with loss of heating, with skies becoming
clear by tonight. Breezy Werly winds could gust to 15+ kt at
times this afternoon, particularly across the coastal plain.
Only chance for subVFR in the period will be if the front stalls
over the area overnight as opposed to pushing offshore tonight,
which could lead to some fog development. Chances of this
happening are very low.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub- VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon
night into Tue with sct showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1530 Friday...Forecast today calls for gradual
improvement through the day as front slowly approaches from the
west. Southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon to
around 15 kt thanks to seabreeze circulations, but will
gradually veer west and the northwesterly overnight into
Saturday as the front crosses the waters. A minority of guidance
suggests a brief surge of northwesterly winds of 15-20kt with
gusts approaching 25kt behind the front, particularly for the
waters N of Cape Hatteras and PamSound. If this does occur, it
will be brief - no more than a couple hours, so have opted to
not issue an SCA for this Nerly surge. Seas 2-4ft in short
period wind waves fall to 2-3ft after the Nerly wind surge. Seas
continue subsiding to widespread 2ft@5-7sec Sat with light to
moderate N-NW winds 5-15 kt veering to become onshore once the
seabreeze circulation kicks in.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday
ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt
by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday night
into early Monday morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will
be possible with potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts.
Winds will grad diminish through the day Mon. Seas 2-3 ft Sat
and Sun, building to 2-4 ft Sunday evening. Another front and
low pressure area may impact the waters Monday night into
Tuesday, though given the spread in the guidance and little run
to run consistency, confidence remains low through mid week. SCA
conditions will be possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB