Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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035 FXUS62 KMHX 062002 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains off the Southeast coast through today. A strong cold front will approach from the west Thursday and move through Friday and Friday evening, with drier conditions this weekend. Another front will move through Sunday night into early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1540 Thursday...Very warm and humid afternoon with temps in the upper 80s/low 90s and Tds in the low to mid 70s. In addition to driving heat indices ~100 degrees, instability on this morning`s sounding had in excess of 2kJ/kg, and this is only expected to increase through the afternoon. With heights continuing to gradually fall with the approaching shortwave trough, airmass will be increasingly supportive of convective development this afternoon. Guidance continues to throw increasingly cold water on the idea of convection developing along the sea breeze this afternoon, possibly owing to stabilization thanks to this morning`s shower activity. Still think there is a primarily isolated threat of showers and maybe a storm here, and continued to carry a slight chance PoP for the rest of the afternoon. The primary focal point of storms will be ahead of the main front itself, where more organized convective clusters are likely with better dynamics associated with the shortwave trough. These storms will approach the coastal plain from the W early this evening. Outflow boundary interactions between storms will potentially fuel additional isolated cell development ahead of this feature. Forecast bulk shear over our area is not expected to exceed 20 kt with minimal turning, which points to a very low risk of organized severe storms. Still, with this unstable of an airmass a few isolated strong cells capable of microbursts are possible. Torrential rainfall is also a threat given PWATs near 2" areawide. Given dry antecedent conditions, the risk of flash flooding is low outside of typically vulnerable (low-lying and urban) locations. Cold front will continue to approach the area overnight. Convective clusters associated with the front will likely be ongoing although instability will be waning through the overnight hours. CAMs point to this cluster of activity pushing off the coast of the Outer Banks overnight. Once the main cold front begins to cross into the coastal plain early Friday morning, one last broken band of frontally-forced showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop with CAMS favoring this activity grazing the Crystal Coast and offshore locations in the pre-dawn hours. A severe risk is not anticipated with this activity, although the threat of torrential rainfall will persist. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 1545 Thursday....The front will move through the Coastal Plain through the day Friday, finally pushing offshore Friday evening in conjunction with the shortwave trough axis aloft swinging through. Expect showers associated with the prefrontal trough to be all offshore during the morning. Isolated showers and storms become possible again for areas along the coast in the afternoon. The seabreeze is expected to remain pinned to the coast by Werly winds in the afternoon and weak boundary in the vicinity could lead to enough convergence to warrant carrying SChc PoPs. Slightly cooler Ts than Thurs with markedly lower Tds sinking into the low 60s, maybe even mid to upper 50s, behind the front. Highs in the upper 80s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 4 PM Thu...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass expected this weekend. Another front will likely push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing threat for sct showers and storms. Friday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s Sat and 80s to low 90s Sun. Sunday night through Wednesday...Still some uncertainty heading into next week, but starting to come into better focus with much better agreement in the global guidance. A front will move through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances for sct showers and storms. Upper troughing will continue over the eastern US, with weak high pressure building in and potential for weak coastal troughing along the SE coast Mon through Wed. Will continue with temps and pops near climo through mid week. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through early Friday/... As of 1320 Thursday...Predominant VFR conditions through the rest of the daytime hours. Thinking on convective forecast has evolved since the prior forecast. Crystal Coast afternoon threat is still present, but confidence in this scenario has dropped with newest hi-res guidance now keeping area completely dry until 23-00z. Main focus for possibility of subVFR flight cats remains on clusters of cells developing ahead of the main cold front, encroaching on the coastal plain early this evening. Primary threat window is 23-00z to around 04-05z, although a renewed round of development along the coast overnight will extend the threat for OAJ until 08-09z. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially for any activity north of a line from HSE- EWN- GWW. Breezy S-SWerly winds this afternoon and evening with gusts to 15-20 kt, with a few infrequent gusts to 25 kt possible across the inner coastal plain. Once the storms pass through, the front will begin to push through the area turning winds more Werly with some clearing from W to E. Lower CIGs linger in the early morning hours offshore and along the coast, but are expected to remain E of the coastal TAF sites. VFR flight cats forecast for Friday with some afternoon showers/storms possible along the seabreeze which will be pinned to the coast. Werly flow aloft will push any storms that do pop up will be blown toward the coast and offshore. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 4 PM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 1545 Thursday...Deteriorating boating conditions expected over area waters today ahead of an approaching cold front currently entering the Wern reaches of NC. Regional observations show widespread SWerly winds of 15-20G25kts with the strongest winds over the Pamlico Sound where the thermal gradient is strongest. Offshore, seas have slowly built to 3-4 feet in response. As cold front approaches area waters tonight, pressure gradient will tighten further with more widespread SWerly winds of 20-25 kt, particularly for offshore waters and the Pamlico Sound. Strongest winds are likely after 21z and will begin to ease after 06z as the front begins to push across the coastal plain. Seas will continue to build through Fri morning, reaching up to 6 feet across portions of Raleigh Bay especially beyond 10-15 nm. SCA headlines were adjusted to acct for latest wind forecast. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 4 PM Thursday...The cold front will move through Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Fri night and Sat 5-15 kt. Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday night into early Monday morning. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft Fri afternoon and cont through the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/CEB SHORT TERM...CQD/CEB LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/CEB MARINE...CQD/CEB