642
FXUS62 KMHX 091119
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
719 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will approach the area late this afternoon, pushing
offshore overnight into Monday with high pressure building in
behind it to start the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 715 AM Sun...Shortwave energy continues to push off the
Carolina coastline this morning with increasing subsidence
aloft. Weak wave of surface low pressure will quickly lift
eastward towards the Gulf of Maine today, dragging a weak cold
front towards the Carolinas. Ahead of this feature, dry but very
warm conditions are expected with increasing WAA ahead of the
front. Temperatures today will climb into the low to mid 90s
inland and upper 80s along the coast (with potential record
warmth for Cape Hatteras - today`s record high is 87). Low-level
subsidence keeps instability low and rain chances at a minimum,
and opted to keep PoPs below mentionable until after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sun...Cold front will continue to gradually sink
across the area overnight. The resultant low-level convergence,
aided by better dynamics with another round of shortwave energy
aloft, favor the gradual development of showers and
thunderstorms shortly after sunset. The pre-storm environment
will be meager thanks to a loss of heating, but SBCAPEs of
around 500 J/kg (potentially 1000 J/kg according to more
generous guidance) will still be present. Shear will gradually
increase overnight, and there will be a narrow window where
favorable shear and sufficient instability will be juxtaposed,
focused along and south of Highway 70. More organized storms in
this area will pose a marginal risk for strong winds and small
hail. PWATs nearing 2" also suggest a torrential rainfall
threat, but the progressive nature of storms keeps the flooding
threat low.

SPC has maintained a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of severe
thunderstorms south of Highway 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...An upper trough develops over the eastern
CONUS Monday into Tuesday bringing seasonable temps and
occasional showers and thunderstorms across the region. High
pressure builds in Wednesday and Thursday bringing drier
conditions and a warming trend. An upper trough pushes across
the Mid-Atlantic late in the week but uncertainty remains with
how much Gulf moisture the system will be able to tap into.

Monday through Tuesday night...A positively tilted upper
trough will dig across the Eastern CONUS Monday into Tuesday
with embedded shortwave energy moving trough the flow aloft
providing opportunities for additional showers and storms.
Timing of the individual waves remains uncertain and generally
followed NBM guidance for PoPs early next week. Temps will be
several degrees cooler on Monday with highs in the mid 80s and
low to mid 80s Tuesday. In addition, a much drier airmass will
build in with dewpoints dropping in to the mid 50s across the
coastal plain and low to mid 60s along the coast making for
comfortable temps.

Wednesday through Saturday...The upper trough axis pushes
offshore Wednesday with sfc high pressure building in and NW
downslope mid level flow bringing drier countdowns across the
region. Precip chances will be lower but cannot rule out
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours along the sea breeze. A northern
stream shortwave pushes across the Mid-West and into the Mid-
Atlantic late in the week while and area of low pressure is
progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. There is significant
uncertainty whether the northern stream system will be able to
tap into the Gulf moisture and advect it across the Southeast
coast or whether upper ridging over the western Atlantic will
shunt the moisture to our south and west. A warming trend is
expected late week with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday
and lower 90s Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Mon/...
As of 720 AM Sun...Outside of persistent reported IFR/LIFR at
OAJ, predominantly VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this
morning. Scattered mid and high level clouds will persist
through today, with clouds slowly lowering through the day as a
cold front approaches from the northwest. Ahead of the front,
southwesterly winds will gust to 15-20 kt in the afternoon, with
the highest gusts over the inner coastal plain.

Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is
expected ahead of the front after 00z, with precipitation likely
coming in multiple waves through the overnight hours. There is a
low probability (5%) of a strong storm producing gusts over 50
kt, mainly between 00-06z.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 415 AM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term but brief periods of sub-VFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms with greatest chance Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 355 AM Sun...Quiet conditions over area waters this
morning with weak high pressure in control. Weak surface trough
inland is resulting in southwesterly winds of around 5-10 kt
with seas 2-3 feet.

Cold front is expected to approach area waters this evening and
slowly cross the area tonight. Hi-res guidance remains insistent
on a short but potent period of strong pre-frontal southwesterly
flow this afternoon with frequent gusts to 25+ kt for all waters
except the inland rivers. With HREF probabilities of 25 kt gusts
exceeding 90%, opted to put up SCA headlines for this afternoon
and early evening. Once the main front begins to cross, winds
will begin to ease. The short nature of the surge will not be
enough to drive seas above 6 feet, but a jump to 4+ feet is
likely late this afternoon and evening.

Crossing cold front will bring a risk of showers and
thunderstorms, a few which could be strong. The highest risk
will be after 00z.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 430 AM Sunday...Sub SCA conditions expected through the
long term with variable winds around 15 kt or less and seas
around 2-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ150-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS