668
FXUS62 KMHX 011735
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
135 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead through the
weekend. A backdoor front likely moves through the area late
Monday, with high pressure building in behind it from the north
through midweek. Thereafter high pressure will reestablish
offshore through late next week with increasingly unsettled
conditions possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1025 AM Sat...Temperatures this morning are quickly on
the rise, climbing into the low to mid 70s this hour and dew
points gradually falling into the low 50s. Near term guidance is
not handling near term trends well and made some healthy
adjustments for the first few hours of the forecast. Remainder
of the previous forecast is reasonable and required little
change otherwise.

Upper level and surface ridging remain over the Eastern
Seaboard resulting in a warm but dry start to meteorological
summer. Kept dewpoints slightly below the lowest guidance today
given lack of change in the dry airmass overhead. Seabreeze does
develop this afternoon which could result in some gusty winds
behind it as light and variable winds become S`rly behind the
seabreeze at 5-10 mph with a few gusts up around 15-20 mph at
times this afternoon.

With increasing low-level heights, temperatures will warm into the
low to mid 80s inland, mid to upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat... Upper level and surface ridging do finally
push offshore tonight, though winds will be light and variable
across the entire region. Skies will remain mo clear to start
this evening allowing for another night of good radiational
cooling through at least the first half of the night. As the
upper level high pushes further offshore, upper level flow will
become SW`rly allowing upper level moisture to finally begin to
overspread ENC late Sat night. As a result high clouds begin to
build in from the south and west likely slowing any temperatures
drops after about midnight. High clouds continue to overspread
the region towards daybreak with lows getting into the mid to
upper 50s inland and mid 60s along the OBX and immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Pleasant and below normal conditions continue
Sunday. Then conditions become more unsettled Monday ahead of a
backdoor cold front which will move through the area Monday
night and bring slightly cooler conditions through Wednesday.
Scattered precip chances continue Tuesday, and then increasingly
unsettled weather is expected Wednesday through late week as
moist southerly flow increases.

Sunday...High pressure continues just offshore Sunday, and our
cooler and drier airmass holds on for one more day. Expect highs
mostly in the low 80s with some isolated mid 80s possible. Only
potential fly in the ointment will be the coverage and thickness
of high based clouds, which could produce overcast conditions at
times during the day, especially over the coastal plain.

Monday and Tuesday...Moisture will continue to spread into the
area early Monday morning from the top down, and may produce
some isolated showers through daybreak. Moisture advection
continues Monday as PWATs surge above 1.5", and expect a decent
coverage (~40%) of showers and thunderstorms with building
instability and the development of sea/sound breezes.

A backdoor cold front will move through the forecast area
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning and bring a more stable
and slightly cooler airmass to the coast. Onshore flow will keep
coastal areas mostly in the 70s, but further inland temps will
climb into the low to mid 80s, and encourage some scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development.

Wednesday through Friday...Moisture looks to quickly surge back
into the forecast area Wednesday as the high pressure to the
north breaks down. Southerly flow will return late in the day,
and will then continue through late week as high pressure
rebuilds offshore. Continued moisture advection will bring PWATs
up to 1.5-2" late next week, and there is a signal for unsettled
conditions ahead of a potent upper level trough. Temperatures
will climb to near normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s
each day, and lows mostly in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Sun/...
As of 135 PM Sat...The probability of IFR flight conditions over
the next 24 hours is very low...less than 10%.

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon as
high pressure remains centered overhead. Cirri is gradually
increasing from the west as moisture plume ahead of a weak
barotropic low over the central MS River Valley shifts eastward.
Deepest moisture is confined in the mid and high levels and only
impact overnight will be the introduction of cigs above 12 kft.
The clouds will play spoiler to any threat of fog at the
terminals overnight. By tomorrow morning, dry air will begin to
filter back in but increasing low-level moisture with southerly
return flow will aid in eventual diurnal cu development Sun
afternoon.

Light and variable winds expected through the overnight period,
apart from a brief period of breezy conditions mainly along
coastal areas as sea breeze circulations advance northward.
Tomorrow, south to southwesterly flow prevails as surface high
shifts offshore.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Mostly VFR conditions are expected Sunday
with high pressure overhead. More unsettled conditions are
possible Monday through Wednesday which could bring some periods
of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday night/...
As of 3 AM Sat... Rather benign boating conditions are forecast
through tonight across our waters as high pressure ridging
which is currently overhead slowly slides offshore. This will
keep things dry across our waters while NW to NE`rly winds at
5-10 kts gradually shift to an E to SE`rly direction at about
5-15 kts this afternoon. Winds become more S`rly tonight
persisting at about 5-10 kts. Current observed seas of 2-3 feet
will remain steady through tonight, with seas nearshore
remaining slightly lower, around 1 to 2 feet.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Good boating conditions expected through the
period. High pressure continues over the waters Sunday and
Monday, and then a backdoor front moves through early Tuesday
and keep light onshore flow into Wednesday.

Winds will be mostly S 5-15 kts Sunday, and then turn to the SSW
Monday at 10-15 kts. Backdoor front moves through the waters
early Tuesday with winds becoming NNE behind it at 5-15 kts.
Flow then become E to SE Wednesday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be
mostly 2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/RCF