869
FXUS62 KMHX 090536
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
136 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build in behind a departing cold front
this morning. Another front will move through Sunday night into
early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Saturday...Overnight temps have been lowered a few
degrees to follow the trend in obs. Given that the afternoon
dew points were in the low- to mid-50s across the coastal
plain, there`s room for lows to drop below the current forecast
(low-60s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 1500 Saturday...An attendant cold front will approach the
area Sunday with gradients tightening bringing increasing WAA
in SW flow allowing temps to warm into the low to mid 90s inland
and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Heat indices will top out
in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints dropping into the low to
mid 60s inland coinciding with warmest temps. Dewpoints along
the coast will be in the upper 60s to around 70 but temps will
be a few degrees cooler leading to similar heat indices as
inland areas. Rain chances will be minimal on Sunday with broad
subsidence and warm temps aloft limiting CAPE across the region
but some iso showers working from W to E ahead of the
approaching front Sunday evening cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Storm chances increase Sunday night
through Tuesday with seasonably warm temps as a weak cold front
pushes through and upper troughing develops over the eastern
CONUS. Upper ridging build in Wednesday and Thursday bringing
drier conditions and a warming trend. An upper trough pushes
across the Mid-Atlantic late in the week but uncertainty remains
with how much Gulf moisture the system will be able to tap
into.

Sunday Evening through Tuesday night...Near zonal flow aloft
across ENC on Sunday but an upper low will track north of the
Great Lakes and across southern Canada with an upper trough
developing across the Eastern CONUS early to mid next week.

Precip chances increase Sunday evening as jet dynamics improve
with upper trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic and the cold
front pushes across the region. Guidance is showing scattered
coverage and will keep PoPs in the Chc-LKLY range Sunday night.
A positively tilted upper trough will dig across the Eastern
CONUS Monday into Tuesday with embedded shortwave energy moving
trough the flow aloft providing opportunities for additional
showers and storms. Timing of the individual waves remains
uncertain and generally followed NBM guidance for PoPs early
next week. Temps will be several degrees cooler on Monday with
highs in the mid 80s and low to mid 80s Tuesday. In addition, a
much drier airmass will build in with dewpoints dropping in to
the mid 50s across the coastal plain and low to mid 60s along
the coast making for comfortable temps.

Wednesday through Friday...The upper trough axis pushes offshore
Wednesday with shortwave ridging building in with mid level
flow becoming zonal on Thursday. Precip chances will be lower
but cannot rule out isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours along the
sea breeze as it pushes inland. A northern stream shortwave
pushes across the Mid-West and into the Mid-Atlantic late in the
week while and area of low pressure is progged to develop in
the Gulf of Mexico. There is significant uncertainty whether the
northern stream system will be able to tap into the Gulf
moisture and advect it across the Southeast coast or whether
upper ridging over the western Atlantic will shunt the moisture
to our south and west. A warming trend is expected late week
with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday with
lower 90s expected as we end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Mon/...
As of 135 AM Sun...VFR conditions prevail over the area this
morning with light southerly winds in response to a surface
trough draped across central NC/VA. Scattered mid and high
level clouds will persist through today, with clouds slowly
lowering through the day as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Ahead of the front, southwesterly winds will gust to
15-20 kt in the afternoon, with the highest gusts over the inner
coastal plain.

Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is
expected ahead of the front after 00z. A few storms could be
strong, with gusty winds being the primary risk.

LONG TERM /Late Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Sunday with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers
and storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which
may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon
night into Tue with sct showers and storms. Mainly VFR expected
Wednesday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1500 Saturday...Quiet marine conditions expected today
as high pressure weakly builds in behind the departing cold
front. Wind fields today will be dominated by sound and sea
breeze circulations, but speeds will stay below 15 kt. By
tonight, sharpening surface trough over the mid-Atlantic will
cause winds to veer south to southwesterly overnight at around
10-15 kt. Seas through the period will remain at 2-4 feet.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday
ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt
by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday night
into early Monday morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will
be possible with potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts, but
have opted not to go with an SCA just yet. With how marginal the
gusts are, I want to give the midnight shift one more chance to
look at another rd of HiRes guidance before issuing anything.
Seas 2-3 ft Sunday building to 2-5 ft Sunday evening. Winds
diminish Monday but another front and low pressure area may
impact the waters Monday night into Tuesday, though given the
spread in the guidance and little run to run consistency,
confidence remains low through mid week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/OJC
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/CEB