446
FXUS62 KMHX 291953
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
353 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area tonight into early
Thursday morning. High pressure builds in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Isolated showers have developed along the
sea breeze this afternoon where higher dewpoints and steep low
level lapse rates reside, mainly confined to the Crystal Coast
and eastern portions of the Albemarle/Pamlico Peninsula.
However, subsidence aloft is limiting development and individual
showers have been relatively short-lived. The sea breeze showers
are expected to diminish toward sunset with loss of sfc heating
but additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may develop
later this evening until an hour or two after midnight as
shortwave energy moves through broad troughing across the
eastern CONUS. An attendant cold front will push through after
midnight with precip chances ending after fropa. Lows tonight
will be near climo around 60 degrees inland to mid 60s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with
weak sfc high pressure briefly building into the region on
Thursday. Northerly flow will advect drier air into the region
with dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 50s inland and upper
50s to around 60 along the coast. The drier air and subsidence
aloft should preclude any shower development Thursday afternoon
but cannot completely rule out an isolated shower along the
sea breeze, which is not expected to develop until late
afternoon as background nly flow will be dominant most of the
day. The CMC is the only model showing QPF during the day
Thursday. Temps will be very comfortable for late May with highs
in the upper 70s/lower 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

 - Below to well below normal temperatures, and low humidity, this
weekend

Synoptic Summary: Notable upper level troughing will develop across
the Eastern U.S. late this week and into this weekend, with strong
high pressure at the surface. Next week, a highly amplified upper
ridge is forecast to develop over the Western U.S., with general
troughing remaining in place across the Eastern U.S. At the surface,
high pressure is forecast to slide offshore, setting up a moistening
return flow in the low-levels.

Thursday Night-Friday: A potent shortwave, and an associated
100kt upper jet, are forecast to round the base of the upper
trough later Thursday into Friday. Modest low-mid level
moistening beneath cool temps aloft will support a period of
weak instability timed out with the passage of the shortwave and
a backdoor cold front. This should support the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially late
Thursday into Thursday night. Severe weather is not expected
with this activity, but with cooler temps aloft, perhaps some
pea size hail could occur. The shortwave will move offshore
during the day Friday, with strong subsidence developing in its
wake. This should put an end to any shower activity.

Saturday-Sunday: Sprawling surface high pressure moving over the Mid-
Atlantic and Carolinas should lead to a dry weekend locally.
Additionally, cooler than normal low-level thicknesses should
support near to below normal temperatures, especially at night with
the high overhead. Right now, Saturday morning looks to be the
coolest morning, with inland lows in the low 50s, and mid to upper
50s closer to the coast. Of note, some of the lowest available
guidance suggests a few of the typically colder locations inland may
drop into the upper 40s. This would be roughly 10-15 degrees below
normal.

Monday-Wednesday: The general consensus of medium range guidance is
for high pressure to shift offshore, allowing a return flow of
moisture off the Gulf and Atlantic. This doesn`t necessarily mean an
immediate return to an active pattern, however. It appears it will
take some extra time to sufficiently moisten the column after a
period of very dry air overhead. At minimum, we may begin to see
some seabreeze convection return by Tuesday or Wednesday, but
nothing overly impressive appears to be on the horizon, thunderstorm-
wise. One caveat, though, is that it looks like an active period
across the High Plains, which sometimes can lead to the development
of an MCV, or two, that could eventually have a downstream impact
locally, and some guidance depicts the convective risk increasing as
early as Monday. Thunderstorms aside, temps will steadily warm back
to normal, as will humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period as high pressure builds into the area. Some of
the high res models are forecasting an area of IFR ceilings
developing over the Outer Banks early Thu and spreading inland
toward the northern TAF sites. Since this is currently an
outlier solution will not include in the official TAF forecasts
but will include the lower clouds just east of the TAF sites in
the grids while continuing to monitor.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

SHRA and isolated TSRA are possible spread VFR conditions are
then expected over the weekend, especially during the day. Each
night and early morning, however, light winds and clear skies
may support periods of sub-VFR conditions in BR/FG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...Descent boating conditions expected
through the short term. Easterly flow less than 15 kt will
continue this evening with seas around 2-3 ft. A cold front will
push across the waters after midnight with winds becoming
northerly around 10-20 kt. High pressure briefly build in
Thursday with winds diminishing some while veering to NE to E
through the day. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

 - Periods of breezy north winds through the weekend

 - Elevated seas possible over the weekend

The East Coast will be solidly in a northerly flow regime through
the weekend, with a series of shortwaves and fronts moving through.
Each wave will have a bump up in winds, although ensemble guidance
currently suggests the risk of 25kt winds is <10% with each wave.
Something to watch, though, especially with enhanced mixing over the
now-warmer waters. By late in the weekend or early next week, an
area of low pressure developing out in the northern Atlantic may
send a stronger long-period northeasterly swell of 10-12s towards
the coast of ENC, which may lead to a period of elevated seas.
Otherwise, an extended period of 2-4ft seas is expected.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RM/CEB
AVIATION...RM/JME
MARINE...RM/SK