Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241040
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
640 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the area today and tonight.
High pressure will build over the area Wednesday through
Friday. Another cold front will move across over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 640 AM Tue...Latest sfc analysis shows 982mb low over the
Great Lakes region with attendant cold front draped through the
Mid-Atlantic and the NC coastal plain. The low becomes
vertically stacked today as upper trough deepens to the west.
Slow moving cold front will continue to push eastward into
Eastern NC today, almost stalling along the coast this afternoon
and evening as it becomes parallel to the upper flow.

Latest radar imagery shows area of showers and isolated
embedded storms this morning, mainly along and east of Highway
17. This line is progged to lift E/NE over the next few hours.
Stronger winds aloft have been able to mix down in showers,
with gusts 40-50 mph...though based on latest obs stronger
gradient winds beginning to diminish along the coast. Periods
of moderate to heavy rain likely for the next few hours with
PWAT values now around 2 inches. Adjusted pops based on latest
radar trends and high res guidance. Precip chances will taper
off from west to east this morning, with best chances along the
immediate coast late this morning and afternoon. Will keep high
chance to likely pops along the Outer Banks today, though may
end up being a little overdone this afternoon and evening.
Latest satellite imagery shows rapid clearing behind this line
of convection over the central part of the state and coastal
plain. Could see some areas of fog develop inland if winds are
able to decouple early this morning, though any fog should lift
shortly after sunrise. Low level thickness values and
diminishing cloud cover support highs in the upper 70s to low
80s again today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Vert stacked low over the Great Lakes will
weaken and lift northward tonight, as associated slow moving
cold front pushes through Eastern NC. Much cooler and drier air
filters in behind the front as upper trough moves into the
Eastern US. Could still see some isolated to widely scattered
showers along the immediate coast, mainly the Outer Banks.
Lowered pops from previous forecast based on latest high res
guidance, but chance pops may still be a little too high.
Overnight lows dropping to around 50 inland, and upper 50s to
low 60s along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...One system will exit the area early
Wednesday with cool high pressure providing fall-like weather
through late week. Another system will approach the area
Saturday then bring another round of precipitation Sunday with
cooler air arriving again on Monday.

Wednesday...Some precipitation may linger along the Outer Banks
early in the day before cold front moves offshore by midday
taking the precipitation with it. Dewpoints will tumble into the
40s on Wednesday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
over most areas, except some lower 70s far southern zones.

Wednesday night through Saturday...High pressure will provide a
cooler, drier, more fall-like airmass Wednesday night through
Friday before the airmass moderates on Saturday ahead of an
oncoming cold front and developing surface low moving north from
Florida. Lows will be in the 40s over most of the CWA Thursday
and Friday morning, with 50s to lower 60s Outer Banks. Daytime
highs will be in the comfortable 60s Thursday, warming to the
lower 70s Friday with a few mid 70s possible Saturday. Moisture
starts to stream north in earnest on Saturday, but precipitation
should hold off until Saturday night.

Saturday night through Monday...The medium range models continue
to show an area of low pressure moving north out of Florida in
advance of another fairly strong cold front Saturday night and
Sunday. The GFS in particular is quite wet for Sunday and looks
to be overdone in comparison with other models. However, have
raised PoPs to high chance Saturday night and Sunday to account
for the wetter trend. Most of the instability on Sunday appears
to be offshore, but models have been inconsistent on the
strength of this system, but for now will have thunder just
offshore. Temperatures will be fairly warm for Sunday ahead of
the front, reaching the mid 70s, but another cooler and drier
airmass arrives for Monday with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 640 AM Tue...Pred VFR across the TAF sites this morning.
Could see some brief IFR fog inland this morning, mainly at OAJ
where skies have almost cleared and winds have decoupled. Precip
will continue to taper off from west to east in the next few
hours and will generally remain east of the TAF sites. Skies
will gradually clear late today and tonight, with just some
scattered scu.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...All precipitation should be east of the
TAF sites by Wednesday morning with VFR conditions to prevail.
High pressure will build into the region with cooler drier
weather Thursday and Friday with increasing moisture bringing
scattered lower clouds by Saturday. Could see patchy early
morning fog, especially Thursday and Friday mornings when
radiational cooling conditions will be maximized.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 640 AM Tue...Strong southerly winds and dangerous seas
across the waters this morning. SCA continues for the coastal
waters, sounds, and Alligator River. Latest obs show southerly
winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt across the outer waters and
seas 5-11 ft. A cold front, over the NC coastal plain, will
continue to move slowly eastward today pushing through the
waters tonight. Gusty southerly winds will continue most of
today, slowly diminishing late evening and overnight. Could see
seas build up to around 12 ft on the central waters. Winds
become NW 10-15 kt behind the front late tonight, with seas
subsiding to 4-6 ft.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...With strong cool high pressure building
across the region, winds for Wednesday through Thursday should
be N/NW at 10-15 knots with seas generally 3-5 feet. By Friday,
as the high weakens and moves offshore and another system starts
to approach from the south, winds veer to Easterly then become
SE/S by Saturday with seas building to above 6 feet once again
as low pressure starts to approach from Florida and another
strong cold front approaches from the west. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will be likely once again by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ130-
     131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD


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