Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 192231

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
631 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A cold front will become stationary across the area tonight into
Sunday, then dissipate early next week. Another cold front will
approach the area in the middle of next week and move through
the area by the end of the week.


As of 630 pm Sat...Latest sfc analysis shows 1004mb low over
southern Quebec, with attendant cold front draped through the NE
US, and down into Eastern NC. Front looks to be extending from
NE NC down through the coastal plain early this evening. The
front will become stationary across the area tonight. Latest
radar imagery shows showers and storms pushing off the coast,
and should become pred dry in the next hour or two. Will keep sc
mention along the coast through first part of the overnight,
though expect pred dry conditions with clouds gradually
clearing. Areas of fog possible overnight, with clearing skies,
winds decoupling and temps reaching/near crossover temps. Added
fog to forecast based on good agreement between high res
guidance and forecast soundings. Overnight lows in the low to
mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s along the coast.


As of 3 pm Sat...A still hot but mainly dry airmass for the
majority of the area. Slightly higher moisture will be found
near and south of the front itself, and that is where we will
confine precip chances to just a slight chance. Highs will be in
the lower 90s along the coastal plain inland to mid/upper 80s
at the beaches.


As of 3 pm Saturday...No significant changes to the forecast
with a quiet start to the week followed by a frontal passage
with widespread showers and thunderstorms mid week and cooler
and drier air for the end of the week into next weekend.

Sunday Night through Tuesday...A front will wash out across the.
area. The end result will be a slightly more comfortable but still
seasonably hot and humid air mass. There will be slightly higher
moisture near and south of the front itself, and that is where we
will confine precip chances. Highs through the period will be around
90 inland to mid 80s at the beaches.

Wednesday into Thursday...Best shot for precipitation over the
extended period will come late Wednesday into Thursday as a new,
stronger front moves into the area.  With consistency in for this
period. models for this feature, elevated PoPs to 60% Wednesday
Night into Thursday.

Friday into Saturday....Good news with the frontal passage will be
some significant relief from the heat and humidity. Expect mostly
dry conditions with highs in the lower 80s both Friday and Saturday
and lows falling into the mid 60s inland.


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 630 pm Saturday...VFR conditions currently, with IFR fog
possible overnight and early Sunday morning. Precip will
continue to move east of the sites in the next hour or so
becoming pred dry overnight. Skies will gradually clear, winds
will be calm and temps are expected to reach/near crossover
temps overnight, so widespread fog, locally dense at times, will
be possible. Fog and stratus should lift quickly after sunrise
Sunday morning becoming pred VFR. Isolated showers and storms
possible Sunday, with best chances S/E of the sites.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 3 pm Saturday...VFR through Tuesday. Sub VFR conditions
possible late Wednesday into Thursday in scattered showers and


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 630 pm Sat...Latest obs show variable winds, E/SW/N 5-15
kt with seas 2-4 ft. Quiet boating conditions in the short term
with a stationary front over the inland areas. South of Oregon
Inlet winds will be mainly south to southwest 5-15 knots with
seas 2-4 feet. North of Oregon Inlet and on the Albemarle Sound
winds will be variable 5 to 10 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 3 pm Saturday...Quiet boating conditions continue through
Tuesday. During this period winds will be 10 kts or less with
wave heights 2 to 3 feet. With a boundary near the coastal
waters wind directions will vary quite a bit during this time
depending on location on the water (north to south). Tuesday
Night winds begin to increase out of the south as a front
approaches and by Wednesday marine conditions become less
favorable. Ahead of the front southwest winds increase 10 to 20
KT, with seas building to 3 to 5 feet as a gradient tightens
ahead of the front. Timing of the frontal passage will begin
Wednesday Night and by Thursday it should be through all the
waters. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet Thursday.




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