Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected through Thursday as a stationary
front lingers across the region and several low pressure areas
move along it. The front will finally move off the coast
Thursday morning. High pressure will build in from the west
Friday and Saturday. A cold front will approach from the west
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Tue...The latest sfc analysis indicates that the
weak frontal boundary had drifted just north of the Albemarle
Sound this evening and should stall for several hours as several
weak lows translate east across it. The most significant low is
forecast to move northeast of the Outer Banks after 06Z. This
should then allow the front to move back south over the
Albemarle Sound region and northern and central Outer Banks late
tonight and early Wednesday.

Radar and the high resolution models continue to show fairly
steady moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall continuing
across the region through about 6Z and will continue categorical
PoPs east of Highway 17/likely west through the evening hours.
The rainfall is then forecast to taper off rapidly after 8Z when
PoPs will be decreased to chance. Additional rainfall of
.25-.75" with locally higher amounts is expected overnight.
Total rainfall of 0.75-1.5" will be possible, with locally
higher amts. Minor flooding of low lying areas will be possible,
in frequent downpours given the high PWAT values around 2
inches and potential for training cells especially over the
eastern half of the area. SPC continues to outlook the region in
a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening with this
threat likely shifting to the coast remainder of tonight as the
high Res models keep the heaviest precipitation offshore.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Weak frontal boundary to the south will lift
back north into the area and stall in a similar location to
today...just south of the Albemarle Sound. While upper low over
the upper mid-west slowly weakens as it dives southeastward. SPC
continues to outlook the region in a Marginal Risk of svr wx
Instability will likely be the limiting factor again with
widespread cloud cover early, though shear will be increasing to
around 40kt. An isolated strong/severe storm will be possible
with gusty winds and hail. Think the first part of the day will
remain generally dry or with isolated activity, with precip
chances increasing during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 pm Tuesday...Wet and stormy period Wednesday night
and Thursday before drier weather arrives Friday into the
weekend.

A warm front will lift north of the area Wednesday evening
ahead of a small area of low pressure that will cross the region
after midnight. Aloft, a deep upper trough over the Mississippi
Valley down into the Deep South will progress eastward towards
the East Coast Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be a
brief break in shower/thunderstorm activity Thursday morning,
with chance PoPs returning Thursday afternoon as a strong
shortwave rotates around the base of the upper trough and
through Eastern NC.

Trended PoPs to coincide with weak surface low/shortwave aloft
on Wednesday evening/night, going categorical through 06Z, then
transitioning heavier precip to the coast after 06Z. Widespread
showers with embedded thunderstorms will overspread the area
from southwest to northeast Wednesday evening. MUCAPES of 500
to 1000 j/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50+ knots around
06Z, supporting the potential for storms to become severe late
Wednesday night. SPC has our entire area in a marginal risk for
severe weather Wednesday night. In addition to the severe
weather threat, there will be a heavy rain threat as PWATS will
approach 2 inches, though convection should move through the
region rather quickly from southwest to northeast, limiting the
potential for training cells/long duration heavy rainfall. Will
continue to mention locally heavy rain and isolated strong
thunderstorms in the hazardous weather outlook.

The main cold front and steadier rains will move off the coast just
after 12Z Thursday. During the afternoon, a few more showers or
thunderstorms will be possible as a strong shortwave rotates
around the base of the upper trough. The upper trough will
move off the East Coast late Thursday with weak upper ridging
and surface high pressure building in from the west through
Saturday. Guidance suggests weak shortwaves will cross through
VA/NC in zonal flow aloft late Saturday into Sunday, warranting
slight chance to chance PoPs.

Temps will warm over the weekend as low level thicknesses build
from around 1390 meters Friday to 1420 meters on Sunday,
supporting max temps in the middle to upper 80s inland, and
with dewpoints well into the 60s by Sunday. From Sunday and
beyond a series of disturbances will move over the top of a
building 500 MB ridge, which when combined with warmer and more
humid airmass, will support shower and thunderstorm chances each
afternoon/evening from Sunday on.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 745 PM Tue...High confidence in sub-VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period as the region remains in very
moist and unstable regime through the period. Periodic
showers/isolated tstms will continue through 6Z then taper off
late tonight. Conditions will continue to bounce between MVFR
and IFR through this evening, before likely deteriorating to
widespread IFR late tonight. Could also see some low level wind
shear develop tonight. Think conditions will improve to MVFR,
possibly VFR during Wed afternoon. Scattered showers/storms
expected to redevelop Wed afternoon.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 400 pm Tuesday...Sub VFR weather likely in periods of
heavy rain and thunderstorms through early Thursday morning. A
return to VFR is expected Thursday night through Sunday as high
pressure and drier weather builds across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 1000 PM Tue...The front has drifted just north of the
waters where it is expected to stall for the next several hours
before moving south through the Albemarle Sound and northern
and portion of the central waters late tonight and early Wed.
Expecting S/SW winds 10-20 kt Albemarle Sound/northern waters
and 20-30kt remainder of the waters overnight. Seas now 3-5 feet
north of Oregon Inlet, and 5-7 feet south. Conditions will
continue to deteriorate tonight, due to the increasing winds
producing building seas 5 to 11 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 4
to 6 north. Think winds will diminish Albemarle Sound/northern
waters late tonight as the front drifts south shifting the flow
to NW. South of the front S/SW flow of 15 to 25 kt is expected
Wed with winds becoming southerly and increasing northern waters
late Wed. Seas south of Oregon Inlet will remain elevated, 5-8
feet early subsiding to 4-6 feet in the afternoon. SCA continues
for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound...though could see a
brief period of gusty winds for the Albemarle Sound late
tonight.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 400 am Tuesday...Poor boating conditions are expected
Wednesday evening through early Friday. Increasing winds and
elevated seas are expected late Wednesday through early Friday
with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for the waters
south of Oregon Inlet and for the Pamlico Sound Wednesday
evening/night. South to southwest winds will increase to 20-30
kts Wednesday evening through Thursday evening with seas
building to 5-10 ft. A small period of gale force winds will be
possible Wednesday night from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout.

Behind the front winds shift into the northwest Friday at 15-20
kts with seas elevated at 4-7 ft. Better boating weather is
expected this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
Winds will become southwest 5-15 knots with seas mostly 2-4 ft,
except for some 5 ft seas farther offshore. NWPS and Wavewatch
guidance in close agreement through Saturday, with Wavewatch
appearing reasonable for the extended portion of the marine
forecast.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ095-098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CQD
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...DAG/EH
AVIATION...DAG/JME/CQD
MARINE...DAG/JME/CQD



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