Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 161135
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
635 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold High pressure remains over the area today. A cold front will
produce light snow on Wednesday and will push offshore Wednesday
night, followed by high pressure building in from the west late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 635 AM Tues...Consensus of the high resolution HRRR and
CONSSHORT models is for the fog and low stratus invading from
the east is to make it as far southwest as Greenville and New
Bern during the next 2-3 hours then retreat and dissipate around
15Z.

As the fog and stratus dissipate late morning, afternoon
sunshine will help to warm temperatures into the upper 40s to
low 50s. Widely scattered to scattered shower activity is
expected across the Outer Banks and Hyde and Dare counties in
association with an inverted trough off the coast. However,
high-res guidance wasn`t as robust as the previous forecast, and
have scaled back PoPs in this region to now be mainly over the
Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 AM Tues...Increasing clouds Tuesday night will
prohibit another night of lows in the 20s. Low temps are
expected to reach the low 30s inland, and mid 30s along the
coast. Most areas should remain dry ahead of advancing cold
through Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...Wednesday through Wednesday evening will
be the focus for wintry weather as rain quickly mixes with then
changes over to snow across most of Eastern NC by evening.
Fortunately the system will have limited moisture with most
model QPF forecasts indicating 0.25" or less of water
equivalent. Nonetheless, the system will have good forcing to
wring out what moisture is available. The 00Z models have come
in slightly cooler suggesting a faster change over to snow
Wednesday afternoon, especially inland as a surface cold front
moves rapidly east across the area Wednesday morning. This will
be an anafront, where precip occurs behind the sfc boundary.
Thus, not expecting freezing rain, as cooling will occur from
top down. Bndry layer wet bulb temps will be near 0 degrees C
through the day, and even though sfc temps will climb to the
upper 30s north to mid 40s south, the arrival of precip will wet
bulb down to the sfc due to dynamic cooling. So expect a brief
period of rain before transitioning to a ra/sn mix then quickly
to snow, from northwest areas to southeast. Right now think
timing will be early afternoon for snow across NW zones, finally
switching to snow southeast zones by early evening as the
precip is coming to an end. Best chance of light accums will be
northern and northwestern counties where deeper cold bndry layer
temps will reside. Timing of the snow should adversely affect
the afternoon and evening commute when the heaviest of the snow
is forecast to occur. Column drying occurs Wed evening as deep
layer saturation quickly erodes, and there may be a brief period
of freezing drizzle before precip comes to an end around
midnight. Roads will likely be treacherous where snow falls
through Thur morning as overnight lows Wed night expected in the
upper teens to lower 20s inland to 25-30 immediate coast.

Thursday through Sunday...Cold and dry conditions will follow
this low pressure system, with high temps Thursday only topping
out in the upper 30s across the area. Low temps will be very
cold Thursday and Friday mornings with teens expected inland,
and 20s along the coast. As the cold upper trough moves away on
Friday, high temperatures will moderate to around 50. High
pressure moving off the coast, and rising heights will allow
temperatures to warm above average over the weekend, with dry
weather expected.

Monday...A cold front will approach late Monday bringing a
threat of showers to area by evening. Mild temperatures will
continue ahead of the front with highs in the lower to middle
60s expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 635 AM Tues...Main concern is whether the large area of
low clouds and fog producing LIFR conditions over the eastern
half of the area will make it as far southwest as Greenville and
New Bern by 14Z as the high resolution HRRR and CONSSHORT
models indicate. Will forecast prevailing MVFR/TEMP LIFR those
terminals through 16Z then VFR in line with the models. VFR
conditions then are expected to prevail this afternoon through
tonight, though clouds with VFR bases will be on the increase
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...Rain/snow will impact flying conditions
Wednesday and Wednesday night, then a return to VFR conditions
are expected Thursday through Saturday with dry high pressure
forecast to be over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 635 AM Tues...Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for most
of the waters due to invading area of fog now moving into
southern waters with visibilities currently 1 nm or less in many
locations this morning.

Winds are currently N 10 to 15 kts, with seas 5-8 ft still. SCA
advisories continue for all the coastal waters, with areas
south of Ocracoke Inlet forecast to come down later this
afternoon. Winds will remain mostly 10-15 kts out of the NNW for
the rest of the period. Seas will be slowly coming down today
with 4-7 ft expected by mid morning, and 3-6 ft likely by
tonight.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...Small craft conditions will persist
across the through Thursday dues to gusty northerly winds 20 to
25 kt through Thursday morning and hazardous 5 to 8 ft seas
through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas slowly decrease late
Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday W/SW flow around 15 kt
is expected with seas 3-5 ft Friday and 2 to 4 ft Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ130-131-
     135-136-150-152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...JME/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...JME/SGK
MARINE...JME/SGK


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