Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 262315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
715 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A weak cold front will cross Eastern NC Tuesday. High pressure
will build in from the west Wednesday through late week and slide
offshore for the weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
As of 715 PM Mon...Benign conditions across E NC under mainly
clr skies. Comfortable conditions exist with TD`s ranging from
the low/mid 50s interior to low 60s coast. Clear skies and calm
winds will allow for decent radiational cooling overnight with
lows ranging near 60 interior to mid/upr 60s coast. Only
expecting some light patchy fog for SW zones as T-TD spread will
be lowest here.

Previous Discussion...As of 345 PM Monday... Latest sfc
analysis is showing a frontal boundary off the Carolina coast.
This boundary will push farther farther offshore as a mid-level
trough axis approaches the area. This will help keep the weather
dry overnight, but mid/high clouds will increase
overnight...ahead of the trough. Overnight temperatures will be
pleasant for this time of the year. Expect lows in the low 60s
inland to low 70s along the coast.


As of 345 PM Monday... A significant shortwave/trough will drop
down from the Midwest into the Carolinas tomorrow/tomorrow
night. Winds will shift from SW to NW during the morning weak
cold front crosses the area. This will support scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop, especially along the sea breeze
zone. Forecast soundings are showing weak instability, but
strong 0-6 km shear (around 50 kts), increasing PW values and
much cooler temps aloft. Mainly a rain event, but with a few
thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Expect high is in
the low to mid 80s under a northerly flow.


As of 300 PM Monday...Scattered showers expected Tuesday Night,
then cooler and much drier air will spread into Eastern NC
Wednesday through late week. Typical summertime pattern
redevelops late week into next weekend with temps a few degrees
above normal and scattered diurnal driven convection.

Tuesday Night...A strong mid-level shortwave will move through
the area Tuesday night, supporting scattered showers and
possibly a thunderstorm. Forecast soundings indicate marginal
instability but strong shear and much cooler temps aloft, 500mb
temps drop to -12/-14C, could see some small hail especially a
few hours in the early evening. Tweaked PoPs slightly to cover
most of the inland area with 30 PoP for the early evening,
diminishing and shifting towards the coast, and then ending by 2
AM. Much cooler air coming Tue night with lows dropping into
the upper 50s inland and mid 60s along the coast.

Wednesday through Thursday...Strong High Pressure will build
across the region bringing dry and pleasant conditions, with
drier and cooler air in place. Highs will be in the low to mid
80s and lows in the lower 60s inland to around 70 on the
immediate coast Wednesday Night.

Friday through Monday...High pressure will shift off the coast
allowing southerly flow to return with an increase in moisture.
Temperatures quickly warm back up with highs creeping back to
the mid 80s/90 degrees through the remainder of the period. Low
temps warming back into the 70s this weekend. With the typical
summertime pattern of troughing inland and high pressure
offshore, scattered diurnal convective chances increase by the
weekend. Friday looks to be mostly dry, but carried a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday.


Short Term /through 12Z Tuesday/...
As of 715 PM Monday...Mainly VFR through the period. Some patchy
light BR possible at KOAJ overnight. Mostly clear skies
overnight give way to increasing high and mid clouds Tuesday. A
few showers possible at KOAJ and KEWN late in the afternoon
though conditions will remain VFR.

Long Term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Scattered showers and storms may produce
brief period of sub-VFR conditions Tuesday Afternoon and
Evening. High pressure will bring a dry air mass for Wednesday
and Thursday. Moisture increases Friday and could see patchy
fog/stratus Saturday Morning and scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday that produce brief periods of MVFR


Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 345 PM Monday...Great marine conditions across Eastern NC
waters. The latest buoy observations are showing NE 12 knots or
less and seas 1-2 ft. Winds will continue to veer from the NE to
S/SW by tonight ahead of weak cold front, then winds will shift
to the NW by morning as the weak boundary starts to cross.
Overall, wind speeds should remain around 10 knots or less.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to occurs Tuesday

Long Term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Generally benign and pleasant boating
conditions expected through late week. Could see a brief surge
of winds Tuesday Night as cooler drier air sweeps into the area.
At this time kept winds no higher than 15 KT although NAM did
indicate a potential for winds to 20 KT. This will need to be
monitored for future updates.

Surface high pressure will build over the area Tuesday night
crest over the waters Wednesday, and move offshore Thursday.
Winds will shift to north/northeast 5-10 kts Wednesday, then
become southeast to south 5-15 kts on Thursday. Gradient will
tighten Fri into Saturday with high pressure offshore and
troughing inland, S/SW winds increase to 10-15 kt Friday and
could approach 20 KT by late Saturday. Seas will be generally
2-3 ft until late Saturday when 3 to 4 foot seas are possible.




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