376
FXUS62 KMHX 280638
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
238 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through later today. The next front passes
late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...

 - Marginally severe seabreeze thunderstorms possible (20-40%
   chance) this afternoon

A cold front will cross the Southern Appalachians this morning,
then progress southeast across the Carolinas through the day,
eventually moving offshore by this evening. The cold front
passage will be favorably timed with peak diurnal heating and
the development of the afternoon seabreeze. Moisture and
instability is forecast to be lower than yesterday, but still
respectable (MLCAPE as high as 1000- 2000j/kg). Shear will also
be lower (around 20-30kt effective). Short-term guidance varies
on the coverage of storms today, but I expect the increased
convergence along the front and the pinned seabreeze will be
sufficient to produce at least isolated to scattered convection
in the 12pm-8pm timeframe. The shear/instability/forcing
combination appears favorable for a marginal risk of severe
weather (mainly 40-60 mph wind gusts and penny to half-dollar
size hail). A couple of notables for today are 1) slightly drier
than normal mid-levels, which could enhance downdraft
potential, and 2) if MLCAPE is able to build to 2000j/kg+, there
could be enough support for a short-lived supercell or two,
which would enhance the hail potential.

West of HWY 17, I expect it to stay dry as the front is
forecast to be through there prior to peak heating. Despite the
passage of the front, CAA will be lagging behind, and temps
should still be able to warm above climo for late May.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

 - Decreasing thunderstorm risk during the evening

A cold front is forecast to move offshore just after sunset
this evening, with a decreasing risk of thunderstorms after that
time. CAA behind the front isn`t forecast to be overly strong,
but it will feel cooler thanks to lowering dewpoints. Some
guidance is hinting at the potential for fog development behind
the front, perhaps especially where thunderstorms form today.
This seems plausible given a lack of stronger post-frontal
winds. At this time, though, widespread dense fog is not
expected, and ensemble guidance only gives a 10-30% chance of
fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 0400 Monday...Clearing through the week as cool high
pressure builds in.

Rest of Workweek...Upper trough persists with shortwaves
passing through the base of the trough Wednesday and again on
Thursday with weak SFC trough developing inland behind the
front. This troughing inland will delay the arrival of the SFC
high from the NW, keeping temps fairly warm Wed. Temps cool end
of the week as the high pressure begins spilling over the area,
MaxTs in upper 70s, MinTs in the 50s. Forecast remains dry
through this period.

Weekend...Upper trough swings through the East Coast and
offshore with SFC almost directly overhead Saturday morning
pushing offshore through the weekend. Get back to warm Serly
flow regime early next week ahead of the next front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

 - TSRA risk returns this afternoon along the coast

An upper level wave moving off the Georgia coast at this time
will lift northeast overnight, with SHRA and TSRA expected to
develop offshore. Some guidance suggests these TSRA may clip the
Crystal Coast overnight, but even if this occurs, they are
expected to remain south of all of our TAF sites. During the day
Tuesday, a cold front will move southeast across the area and
combine with the developing seabreeze, producing SCT TSRA in the
18-00z timeframe. The TSRA risk may reach as far north as KOAJ,
and KEWN. However, with the seabreeze expected to be pinned
closer to the coast, those terminals may end up staying dry. For
this reason, I opted to leave TSRA out of those TAFs for now.
Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR VIS can be expected, in addition to
40kt+ wind gusts and hail. In the wake of the TSRA, low CIGs or
BR/FG may develop, especially where the coverage of TSRA is the
greatest.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 400 AM Monday...A drying trend is setting up for the
remainder of the workweek. Periods of sub- VFR conditions are
possible but flight cats expected to remain VFR outside of
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

 - Improving winds and seas

 - Thunderstorm risk this morning through late this evening

Southwesterly winds have laid down some, and are now in the
10-20kt range early this morning. Seas appear to be peaking now,
and are in the 3-5 ft range, highest south of Cape Hatteras.
Given the improving conditions, I opted to go ahead and cancel
the SCA early. Breezy southwesterly winds will continue through
this evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW. That
front is forecast to move southeast across the waters this
evening. Ahead of the front, there will be two opportunities for
thunderstorms. The first will be this morning as an upper level
wave glances the area. This will primarily impact the southern
waters. The second opportunity will be this afternoon through
this evening as thunderstorms develop along the seabreeze, then
shift southeast towards the coast and offshore. While those
should be scattered in nature, the risk could extend as far
north as the northern rivers/sounds/coastal waters.
Thunderstorms through this evening will be capable of 40kt+ wind
gusts and hail.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 0400 Monday...The front finally pushes offshore
by early Wed. Winds briefly turn Nerly behind the front early
Wed before becoming SWerly again as SFC trough approaches and
moves through Wed night, turning winds Nerly for the remainder
of the work week. Seas generally falling through the week; 2-4ft
Tues, 2-3ft Wed, 1-3ft late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB