817
FXUS62 KMHX 280541
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
141 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through Tuesday. The next front passes
late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 10 PM...Severe threat has come to an end across ENC, and
all convective watches and warnings have been dropped. It should
remain mostly quiet tonight, though some isolated convective
coverage is possible especially along the coast as another
shortwave impulse moves nearby to our south and west.
Temperatures will remain mild early tonight, but should
eventually cool into the low 70s by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Mon...The cold front will stall near the coast Tue
as the base of the upper trough approaches from the NW. The
front combined with a pinned seabreeze should be convergence to
generate scattered showers, with best chances in the afternoon.
Showers confined to the coast early with chances increasing
toward HWY17 in the afternoon as seabreeze tries to propagate
inland, likely having a difficult time with low level westerly
flow developing. Highs in the 80s, though will feel a bit cooler
than past several days, esp inland with dewpoints grad falling
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 0400 Monday...Clearing through the week as cool high
pressure builds in.

Rest of Workweek...Upper trough persists with shortwaves
passing through the base of the trough Wednesday and again on
Thursday with weak SFC trough developing inland behind the
front. This troughing inland will delay the arrival of the SFC
high from the NW, keeping temps fairly warm Wed. Temps cool end
of the week as the high pressure begins spilling over the area,
MaxTs in upper 70s, MinTs in the 50s. Forecast remains dry
through this period.

Weekend...Upper trough swings through the East Coast and
offshore with SFC almost directly overhead Saturday morning
pushing offshore through the weekend. Get back to warm Serly
flow regime early next week ahead of the next front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

 - TSRA risk returns this afternoon along the coast

An upper level wave moving off the Georgia coast at this time
will lift northeast overnight, with SHRA and TSRA expected to
develop offshore. Some guidance suggests these TSRA may clip the
Crystal Coast overnight, but even if this occurs, they are
expected to remain south of all of our TAF sites. During the day
Tuesday, a cold front will move southeast across the area and
combine with the developing seabreeze, producing SCT TSRA in the
18-00z timeframe. The TSRA risk may reach as far north as KOAJ,
and KEWN. However, with the seabreeze expected to be pinned
closer to the coast, those terminals may end up staying dry. For
this reason, I opted to leave TSRA out of those TAFs for now.
Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR VIS can be expected, in addition to
40kt+ wind gusts and hail. In the wake of the TSRA, low CIGs or
BR/FG may develop, especially where the coverage of TSRA is the
greatest.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 400 AM Monday...Showers and thunderstorms are expected
possible Tues with a drying trend setting up for the remainder
of the workweek. Periods of sub- VFR conditions are possible but
flight cats expected to remain VFR outside of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 10 PM Mon...SCA continues for the waters, sounds and
rivers with potential for several hours of 25 kt gusts and with
seas possibly building to 4-6 ft over the outer central waters.
As the cold front approaches tonight, the gradient may relax a
bit with winds grad diminishing towards sunrise. Front will
stall near of along the coast Tue as moderate S/SW winds
continue with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 0400 Monday...The front finally pushes offshore
overnight/early Wed. SWerly winds 10-15G20kt. Winds briefly
turn Nerly behind the front early Wed before becoming SWerly
again as SFC trough approaches and moves through Wed night,
turning winds Nerly for the remainder of the work week. Seas
generally falling through the week; 2-4ft Tues, 2-3ft Wed, 1-3ft
late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB