283
FXUS63 KMKX 280840
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers & storms again today. Severe weather is
  unlikely in this activity.

- Dry & pleasant conditions prevail from Wednesday through the
  end of the week. Friday night will be the next chance for
  precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Today through Tonight:

Showers will slide out over the next few hours bringing a period
of drier conditions into the mid morning hours. Models are
largely in agreement that the region will see scattered showers
and storms (45-60%% chances) as another shortwave slides
southeast from central Canada into the western Great Lakes
region. The scattered shower activity will likely (80%) begin
late this morning and persisting through at least part of the
evening hours, with the best storm chances (30%) during the
afternoon hours. With regard to storm chances, stronger storms
are not expected due to a lack of shear but due to decent lapse
rates from cooler conditions aloft we could see instability as
high as 1000 J/kg. Thus we cannot rule out some taller storms
capable of producing some hail and/or gusty winds, especially if
we can get some decent sunshine in the morning. Storms will
likely end by the early evening hours as any diurnal heating
ends. Precip will gradually dissipate into the evening as the
surface high begins nudging in as with the upper ridge.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

By Wednesday we will finally return to drier conditions with
higher pressure sliding in with ridging building in aloft.
Through at least Friday we expect to remain dry though models
have shifted fairly significantly over the last 24hrs regarding
precip potential into the weekend. Yesterday models trended
drier through Saturday but the latest models now suggest
precipitation is more likely expected by Friday night into
Saturday. Given the last models changes it could be presumed
that more changes remain possible. This looks largely related to
some UL shortwave energy injected into the otherwise large scale
ridging aloft. Models currently suggest this would be largely
rain with not much instability to work with.

Then by Sunday we should see another system push in as the UL
ridge slides out with the surface high. We will have to watch
the timing of this system as there is at least some risk for
some severe storms. In addition Monday will see a similar
scenario with more storms expected though it looks like better
timing. In either scenario instability looks plenty but shear is
somewhat lacking so that is something that lowers the severe
potential.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Rain has largely cleared out with midlevel CIGS though some
clearing in the southwest. This clearing may last into the mid
morning before the next system starts pushing in. Showers and
storms are expected with the best storm chances in the afternoon
with gradual dissipation into the evening. Largely, outside of
showers and storms, expect VFR conditions but some VSBY
restrictions could be expected with heavier rains.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Low pressure over central Ontario will continue to slide
northeast as high pressure inches nudges into north central US.
Breezy northwest winds will diminish slightly, but remain
elevated through this evening as the high slides toward the
western Great Lakes. West to northwest flow will shift to
northerly with winds gradually weakening over time as the high
pressure builds into the region on Wednesday. The high will
hold strong into the early weekend with light to modest north
winds from Wednesday through at least Friday.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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