Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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313 FXUS63 KMKX 272033 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail are possible, but severe weather is not expected. - Scattered showers & storms again Tuesday. Severe weather is unlikely in this activity. - Dry & pleasant conditions prevail from Wednesday through the end of the week. Friday night will be the next chance for precipitation. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night: We have a few different processes going on across southern WI this afternoon and evening that are producing areas of showers and thunderstorms. First, stratocumulus showers and thunderstorms are developing in the wraparound area of an exiting low. These are tracking southward from north central WI and are due to steep mid level lapse rates. They are encountering an uncapped environment in south central WI, basically west of Fond du Lac, Waukesha and Burlington, where there was sunshine today. Wind shear is weak. Gusty winds in brief downbursts, along with pea to dime size hail, are possible with any stronger storms this afternoon. The second area is light rain from high cloud bases that is associated with a very weak shortwave and decaying precip. The precip is probably not hitting the ground, but the clouds are acting to decrease the instability/CAPE values a little. The main area that we`re watching this afternoon is an area of thunderstorms due to a robust shortwave that are moving into southeast MN and northeast IA. These storms should reach Madison around 7 PM. Once they get east of Madison, they should weaken quickly since that area is less unstable due to the clouds hanging around all day. Any stronger storms this afternoon and evening can produce gusty winds up to 50 and small hail. There will be another shortwave that rolls across southern WI on Tuesday. The time of day will be more favorable for scattered to numerous thunderstorms from mid morning through late Tuesday afternoon. CAPE values up to 1000 j/kg and weak shear will allow for a gusty wind and small hail threat once again. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Wednesday through Monday: High pressure will be in control Wednesday and Thursday so expect a period of dry weather and sunshine. Highs during this time will be in the upper 60s to 70 inland and lower 60s near Lake Michigan. Overnight lows will dip down to around 40 in a few spots due to the dry air mass and efficient radiational cooling. Southerly flow will kick in Friday so look for highs in the mid lower-mid 70s for inland areas. Showers and thundrstorms are looking more likely for Friday night into Saturday morning as a shortwave trough lifts up through the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Another upper trough/shortwave should remain well to our north toward the Canadian border as it rotates through Saturday night. Sunday, a warm front is expected to lift through WI as low pressure develops in MN and IA. This front should feature thunderstorm chances, but timing and location are still uncertain. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Scattered thunderstorms are expected through mid evening. MVFR ceilings are possible overnight after the storms clear, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAFs. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected from mid Tuesday morning through late Tuesday afternoon. Cloud bases should be MVFR, especially in the heavier downpours. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 333 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Gusty WNW winds will diminish this evening but remain elevated all the way through Tuesday night until high pressure moves in. The Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire at 4 PM. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening and then more widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday midday through Tuesday evening. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee