101
FXUS62 KMLB 230201
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1001 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

It`s a dry and quiet evening across east central Florida with high
pressure in place over the Southeastern US. Local observations
show mostly clear skies across the state of Florida. Onshore flow
will persist into Thursday with light and variable winds
overnight expected to increase from the east- southeast into
Thursday afternoon. Low temperatures are on track to reach the mid
60s to low 70s under clear skies. Fog is not forecast, however
visibility restrictions along roadways due to lingering smoke
from brush fires will still be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
with high pressure in place over the western Atlantic. Light winds
from the east overnight will increase into Thursday afternoon at
5-10kts. Seas are expected to build to 1-3ft.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May
22 2024

Key Messages...

-Remaining mostly dry and becoming hotter than normal through late
week.

-Isolated afternoon showers and storms possible into the holiday
weekend, but remaining drier than normal and hot, with highs well
into the 90s.

Currently-Tonight...Sea breeze continues to push inland and a few
brief showers have developed near Lake Okeechobee where
interactions with the lake breeze have occurred. However, this
activity will be limited for the rest of the afternoon across
this area. Otherwise, drier air evident in GOES-16 PW value
imagery will continue to build in from the east keeping dry
conditions in place through the rest of today into tonight. Skies
will be mostly clear and overnight lows will range from the mid
60s to low 70s. Guidance not indicating much in the way of fog
development for tonight across east central Florida. However, with
lighter winds forecast, smoke from any lingering active or
smoldering brush fires will still be able to cause visibility
concerns along area roadways, especially near the large "Sandy
Drain" wildfire.

Thursday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will
remain extended across the region into tomorrow, with ridge aloft
extended from the Gulf of Mexico and northeast across the state.
This combined with a drier airmass (PW values at or just below an
inch) across east central FL will keep rain chances out of the
forecast for Thursday. Temperatures will continue to trend
upward, with highs near to above normal in the mid to upper 80s
along the coast and low to mid 90s over the interior.

Friday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Warm and muggy
conditions continue to build as moisture returns and a flattening
500mb ridge holds influence over the Florida peninsula. High
temperatures further climb through the weekend and into early next
week, reaching the mid 90s across the interior, and possibly into
the upper 90s for some inland areas, especially on Sunday and
Memorial Day. Along the coast, not much relief will be had by the
sea breeze, with highs still forecast to reach the low to mid
90s. Heat index values between 97-102 on Friday, increase to
100-107 degrees early next week, nearing Heat Advisory criteria.
Additionally, rain chances remain below normal, with only
isolated showers and storms forecast each afternoon, so not much
in the way of afternoon convection to provide any relief from the
hotter conditions either.

Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities this
Memorial Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air
conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat
related illness!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Tonight...Easterly winds around 10 knots early this evening will
diminish to around 5 knots or less late tonight. Seas will range
from 2-3 feet. Mostly dry conditions expected over the waters
overnight, but a few showers will be possible over the offshore
waters of the Treasure Coast late tonight.

Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure
builds across the local waters, promoting favorable boating
conditions through the period. Onshore winds veer south-southwest
into Friday, backing along the coast each afternoon as the sea
breeze develops. Light winds around 5-10 kts Thursday increase to 10-
15 kts into the weekend. Remaining mostly dry across the waters
through late week and then isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms will be possible across the coastal waters into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  87  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  69  92  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  71  87  72  90 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  70  88  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  70  93  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  69  92  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  70  92  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  69  88  69  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Fehling/Kelly