Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
937 FXUS62 KMLB 061110 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 710 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Moved VCTS and TEMPOs earlier a bit at the inland terminals as latest guidance continues to signal SHRA developing as early as 18Z. Little more uncertainty when TSRA becomes SCT-NUM, but 19Z looks to be earliest reasonable so went with that for TEMPO starts. Added TSRA TEMPO to KTIX and held off KMLB-KSUA, but it`s a close call. Light S-SW flow will favor the WCSB, reaching KLEE by 19Z and shifting winds to W at 10-15 kts. ECSB develops around 16Z, shifting winds at coastal terminals to ESE-SE near 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Sea breezes collide INVOF the I-4 terminals around 20Z, which combined with TSRA will lead to frequent wind direction changes in the late afternoon and evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 -Shower and storm chances increase today, with some strong to isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening. -Hot conditions forecast today and through the weekend, with near record highs and heat index values in the 100 to 107 range. -Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend. Today-Tonight...Hot and humid conditions return across the area today, as ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic slides southward across central FL and a mid level trough approaches from the NW. This will lead to a low level S/SW flow becoming W/SW aloft, pulling in increasing moisture across the area through the day. PW values increase from around 1.5" in the morning up to 1.7-1.9" into the afternoon. Low level winds remain weak enough for sea breeze development, and showers and storms should increase across the area from mid afternoon through sunset as sea breeze boundaries push inland and eventually collide across east central Florida. Scattered to numerous showers and storms should be able to form from these interactions, aided by the approaching mid-level trough, and have PoPs up to 50-70 percent across the region. While the precipitation will be welcome with ongoing drought conditions in place, some stronger storms will be possible. Model guidance has temps aloft coming in a tad higher than what they were showing 24 hours ago, with values around -8 to -9C at 500mb. However, this will still be sufficient to produce the potential for small hail, with isolated occurrences of hail up to quarter size possible. DCAPE values of 1200-1500 J/kg may also support some strong to locally damaging wind gusts up to 40-60 mph with any stronger convection. Weaker steering winds may allow for some locally heavy rainfall from this activity, around 1-3 inches as well. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather across much of east central FL. Greatest potential for any severe storms will be focused from 3PM-9PM before this activity gradually weakens and diminishes toward midnight. With the increase in moisture comes a rise in the humidity values today. Temperatures will continue their upward trend, with highs above normal in the low to mid 90s along the coast and mid to upper 90s across the interior. The combination of the heat and humidity will produce peak heat index values in the 102-107 range (close to heat advisory criteria). As storms develop toward mid to late afternoon, the increase in cloud cover and rainfall will be able to provide some relief. Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities today. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! Friday...Another mid-level trough axis swings southward toward and through the area Friday into Friday night, pushing the surface ridge axis south of central FL and shifting a weak front toward north FL late in the day. Low level winds will veer to the W/SW ahead of the front, but remain weak enough for the east coast sea breeze to develop and move inland. PW values will decrease slightly to 1.5- 1.7", but may increase some into late afternoon. Temps actually warm aloft to around -7C at 500mb, and CAM guidance somewhat split on how much convective development there will be into the afternoon. For now have raised PoPs slightly to 40-50 percent, which is a little more in line with MOS guidance compared to the NBM values, which looks way too high. A few stronger storms could still be possible, with the main threats being frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph. Scattered showers and storms that develop into the afternoon, will largely shift offshore into Friday evening, with rain chances ending by midnight. Hot conditions will prevail, but forecast highs trend down just by a degree or two, but still near daily records, with values in the low to mid 90s and heat index values reaching around 100-105. Overnight lows are forecast to fall to the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Wednesday...Weak front will slide farther south nearing and stalling near to just north of central FL into the early weekend before this boundary fades. Drier air is forecast to filter into the area during the weekend, lowering rain chances to 20-40 percent on Saturday and 20-30 percent, mainly south of Orlando into Sunday. These values are again more in line with MOS guidance then the NBM, which has been running too high on PoPs lately. Hot conditions continue into the weekend, as ridge aloft builds in from the west, with near record highs into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values still around 100-105 each day. Another front will approach and stall just northwest of the area into early next week, with increasing moisture and rain chances. There still remains some overall uncertainty on how quickly moisture increases, but have shower and storm chances rising to 40-60 percent on Monday to 60-70 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday. Hot and humid conditions forecast to continue into Monday, with highs still in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values 102-107. Increasing coverage of showers and storms through Tuesday and Wednesday, then have forecast highs falling to the low 90s on Tuesday and upper 80s on Wednesday. Lows remain in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic slides southward across the waters with lighter winds around 5-8 knots out of the S/SSW this morning, but eventually becoming SE and increasing to 10-15 knots into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and shifts inland. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across land areas into the mid afternoon and through the evening from boundary collisions across the interior. Much of this activity should remain over land before it diminishes through late evening, but some storms may be able to shift back toward the coast and offshore, especially off of the Volusia/Brevard and Indian River coastline. Some strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, producing wind gusts up to 40-60 mph and small hail. Winds veer southerly and remain elevated around 10-15 knots into the evening, with winds continuing to veer to the W/SW overnight. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet. Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and storm chances begin to decrease into the weekend before rising once again into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Thursday-Monday...Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist across the area through late week, with sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions into the weekend, as hot conditions prevail and ongoing drought conditions persist. Minimum RH values fall to the 40s across the interior this afternoon and Friday afternoon. Rain chances increase today, with scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast toward the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and coin-sized hail. Additional scattered showers and storms again possible into Friday afternoon. An increase in lightning strikes with this activity, may lead to additional brush fires. Conditions then trend a little drier into the weekend, with Min RH values falling to the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior on Saturday and into the mid to upper 30s across the interior on Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will again be possible each afternoon, but overall coverage is forecast to be lower. Highs forecast to remain above normal and near record values through late week and into the weekend, with heat index values as high as 100-107. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 95 72 94 73 / 60 30 50 10 MCO 97 74 95 76 / 60 30 50 10 MLB 93 72 92 74 / 50 40 50 20 VRB 93 72 93 73 / 50 40 50 20 LEE 96 75 94 76 / 50 20 40 10 SFB 97 74 96 75 / 60 20 50 10 ORL 97 75 95 76 / 60 30 50 10 FPR 94 71 94 73 / 50 40 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Haley