Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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388 FXUS63 KMPX 090500 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable & dry weather through Monday. - Next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms comes Tuesday. - Trending warmer through next week, with slight thunderstorm chances through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 728 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...Scattered showers across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue to diminish this evening. Winds are also decreasing, and gusts should end by sunset. Overnight expect mostly clear skies with light winds. On Sunday, forecast soundings show northwest winds increasing once again, so did bump up wind gusts a bit toward the higher end of the forecast guidance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Sunny skies & pleasant weather has developed after this morning`s rain, with dry & seasonable weather expected to continue through the rest of the weekend & into Monday. A few isolated rain showers are possible late this afternoon & evening across east-central Minnesota & western Wisconsin as a weak cold front moves through the region, but any precipitation amounts will be negligible. Daytime temperatures will be fairly steady through Sunday & Monday with highs int he mid 70s. Models are in good agreement with a shortwave/surface low skirting along the US/canada border Tuesday, with a cold front extending southwards through the area. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along this front, although the extent of thunder will depend on the timing of the front through the area. The current consensus brings the front through primarily during Tuesday morning, which would limit the threat for thunder & likely the rainfall amounts as well. We`ll see if there`s any change in the timing, but for now rainfall amounts are generally expected to be on the order of 0.25-0.5" across northern & central MN, decreasing closer to 0.10" across southern Minnesota where the forcing will be weaker. Temperatures will take on a warming trend midweek into next weekend, although not as pronounced as forecast earlier this week as weaker ridging is now expected to build into the central CONUS. This weaker ridging also means that heights will be suppressed over the northern tier of the CONUS, and potentially setting up an active "ring of fire" thunderstorm pattern jet stream increases in speed later in the week. Models depict a number of shortwaves developing in the increasing flow aloft & following the northern periphery of the weak ridging aloft right over our area. Organized Thunderstorm complexes would be likely with any of these shortwaves, although models still vary widely on their location & timing. Thus a few chances for thunderstorms & potentially heavy rain look possible starting Thursday & continuing through the weekend, although it is unlikely we will see rain every day through that period. As mentioned earlier, temperatures will trend warmer & more humid with Wednesday & Thursday shaping up to be the warmest days. NBM guidance has mid-80s for the median temperatures, although the 75th & 90th percentile guidance reaches the 90s in some areas should the ridging build in stronger & clouds/precip not develop. Temperatures look to cool more into the low 80s later in the week as the jet stream strengthens & suppresses the ridging over the area although the possibility of thunderstorm complexes & their timing makes for low confidence in any temperature forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions throughout with light winds near 05 kts overnight. On Sunday winds will increase during the morning, with gusts of 25 to possibly 30 kts mid day. Scattered cumulus will increase in coverage and become broken by evening, but bases should be above 4000 ft. Winds will start to decrease Sunday evening. KMSP...VFR conditions throughout. Light northwest winds overnight will increase again on Sunday. A few gusts near 30 kts are possible late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Clouds will increase during the day, but bases should remain above 4000 ft. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S 10G20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...JRB DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...JRB