638
FXUS63 KMPX 070759
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
259 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers likely Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Warming trend as we head into next week with a few slight rain
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today... Clear skies overnight will continue into this morning.
CLouds will start to move in from west to east this afternoon
into tonight as the next round of rain moves in. Temperatures
should rise to about normal in the 70s today with the sunny
start to the day. This will be enough by the afternoon for good
mixing, but winds aloft are lower today and it will not be as
windy as yesterday. It should still get gusty again late
morning into afternoon, just at lower speeds maxing out more in
the 20-25 mph range. There will be some RH values falling into
the 25 to 35 percent range, so we will be on the edge of fire
weather criteria. With recent rains and the removal of drought
conditions though this should help limit fire weather concerns
today.

Tonight into Saturday... As temperatures fall this evening into
tonight moisture advection will help saturate the air. This
combined with a shortwave aloft should support rain showers
tonight into Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are not
particularly high for this time of year up around an inch, so
QPF is not impressive in most ensemble guidance. Also not much
in the way of instability, so thunderstorms are unlikely. So
a good setup for some light rain with most under a 0.25", but a
region of 0.25-05" is possible based on the 00Z HREF. Best
chance appears to be east central Minnesota into west central
Wisconsin based on the expected tracks of the showers. After
the shortwave passes, Saturday should be a pretty nice day with
clearing skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Sunday through Thursday... Looking ahead, next week is where
the spread really starts to increase. Overall a warming trend
with above normal temperatures more likely by the end of the
week. How warm and what rain chances we get though is less
certain. Looking at the latest LREF the GEFS favor a cooler and
wetter pattern with the GEPS favoring warmer and drier. The ENS
is more in the middle. Looking to deterministic models the GFS
is the dry one with the ECMWF looking wetter for us. So when are
these rain chances? There looks to be two periods of synoptic
support late Sunday and Tuesday. Neither had a particularly
strong signal, so PoP values have been kept low until there is
some better clustering in the ensemble guidance and better
agreement in the forcing mechanisms in the deterministic models.
What is more certain is the warming trend. WAA kicks up in the
later part of the week with 80s looking likely and 90 on the
upper quartile. Basically after a few late spring days ahead the
later part of next week will feel like summer has arrived.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Clearing skies continues late this evening. Some gusts of 20-25
kts could return across eastern MN and WI late Friday morning,
otherwise no significant concerns until Friday night when
showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms return.

KMSP...Light winds tonight, but 20-25kt gusts are expected to
pick up again from mid morning to mid afternoon Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Borghoff