196
FXUS64 KMRX 061429
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1029 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Currently a few showers are present across northeast Tennessee
into southwest Virginia ahead of an incoming front. Surface
observations and satellite imagery shows that the front is slowly
making it`s way thorugh western TN up into eastern KY heading to
the southeast. Until the front moves through expect low end shower
and (eventually) thunderstorm chances to continue. No major
changes have made to forecast for this morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Messages:

1. Additional scattered showers and storms expected this
afternoon, drying out this evening and through the overnight.

2. Temperatures trending cooler tonight.

Discussion:

A surface boundary stationed to our north and a fizzling out MCV to
our southwest have resulted in isolated to weakly scattered precip
across the region. A few light showers could occur over the next few
hours but the main impact overnight will be cloud cover resulting in
above normal minTs. Coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms will
increase mid-late morning into the afternoon. Model derived
soundings from CAMs suggest MLCAPE should generally remain less than
1000 J/kg and limit strong/severe chances as cloud cover is expected
ahead of the main line (approaching around the 16-22z timeframe).
Rain chances trend downward this evening and into the overnight,
through some isolated activity may lingering around. Height falls
and winds veering to the northwest will result in a cooling trend
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Message:

1) Drier and cooler Friday through Saturday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday.

3) Monday through the rest of the extended trending drier.

Discussion:

Overall, it`s a fairly quiet long term period.

Drier and cooler air in place to start the period on Friday. Plenty
of sun, slightly below normal temps, and dewpoints in the 50s will
make for a marvelous day. I don`t advocate skipping work, but if you
have a personal day that you need to use Friday would be the one to
do it. Main forecast impact on Friday will be breezy winds due to a
tight pressure gradient across the region and deep afternoon mixing.
Valley winds will generally gust up to 20 mph and up to 35 mph
across the higher peaks of the east TN mountains.

Saturday is another dry day but clouds increase during the afternoon
hours as a weak shortwave rolls through the area. On Sunday a
deepening longwave trough and associated cold front will move
through, producing showers and storms. No severe weather is expected
at this time. Monday through the end of the extended have trended
drier. This is because it now looks like Sunday`s cold front will
make a clean sweep across the region, leaving drier air in its wake.
However, NBM keeps POPs in place on Monday to account for a
potential shortwave rolling in on the backside of the cold front.
Though if precip occurs it will be very light, but overall chances
of occurrence are quite low. NBM keeps some slight chance POPs in
here and there from Tuesday onward to account for uncertainty but
I`m not seeing anything that would suggest precip at this time. Will
leave POPs alone though, mainly to hedge toward the uncertainty
aspect.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Scattered rain showers are developing on radar and guidance
continues to suggest brief MVFR cigs are possible this morning. We
will mix out into the afternoon, where a few thunderstorms will
occur among the showers but conditions should remain predominantly
VFR. Southwest winds will generally range from 5-15kts this
afternoon. Conditions dry out late this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  65  84  60 /  30   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  62  80  58 /  60  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  60  80  56 /  40  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  59  77  53 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...KRS