026
FXUS64 KMRX 280639
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Message:

1. A few isolated showers are possible early this morning, along
with patchy fog.

2. Mostly clear skies and quiet weather on tap for today.

Discussion:

Currently a few isolated showers are developing off of some outflow
boundaries from weak convection Monday evening. As they move into
the eastern Tennessee Valley they`re encountering an increase in
instability leading to a quick uptick in convection, however no
lightning has been recorded early this morning. With the mostly
clear skies some patchy fog is developing in the river valleys and
locations that received heavy downpours over the past few days.
Expect the patchy fog to quickly dissipate after the sun rises this
morning.

The remainder of the day should be fairly pleasant with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures very similar to what we experienced on
Monday. However dew point values will be much lower with the drier
air from the northwest moving into the area, lowering relative
humidity values over the southern Appalachians.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather will continue through at least Friday with highs a
few degrees below normal.

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms start to creep back into
the region Saturday afternoon. Low rain chances will continue on
Sunday into Monday.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a trough will be over the East Coast bringing
northwest flow overhead until a ridge builds in on Friday. On
Saturday, a more chaotic pattern moves in with a series of
shortwaves likely to move through the region through Monday. At the
surface, high pressure remains over the region. Dry weather will
continue through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, low
chances for showers and thunderstorms start to return. Rain chances
will continue through Monday. Rain chances will be day and night but
fairly low around 30 to 40 percent. Timing can probably be nailed
down better as it gets closer. The weekend will likely not be a wash
out and I wouldn`t exactly call it a wet pattern but a few passing
showers and storms can be expected.

Slightly below normal temps are expected through Friday with lows in
the 50s and highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

A few isolated showers have moved through the area overnight and
brought a light round of rain to KTRI/KTYS. Could see some fog
develop overnight with the extra rainfall and mostly clear skies.
Any fog should burn off quickly after the sun rises.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  60  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  57  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  56  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  54  73  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...